In this briefing:
- Shenwan Hongyuan IPO Preview: Struggling to Stand Out
- Guotai Junan Placement: A Reasonable Price for Reasonable Performance
- Guotai Junan Securities Placement Quick Take – Might Be Too Big to Sail
- Studio City – Thoughts on Lock-Up Expiry
- Changliao (畅聊) AKA Paipai (派派) Pre-IPO Review – Self-Sufficient
1. Shenwan Hongyuan IPO Preview: Struggling to Stand Out
Shenwan Hongyuan Hk (218 HK) is a Chinese securities firm which is backed by Chinese state-owned investment firm, Central Huijin, a 57% shareholder. It listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in January 2015 and seeking to raise $1.5 billion through a Hong Kong listing. Shenwan Hongyuan will start book-building on Thursday according to press reports.
Securities firms had a tough 2H18 due to unfavourable stock market conditions and rising competition in China and Hong Kong. In 2019, the share prices of securities firms have markedly risen YTD due to the strong index performance and rising trading volumes. Overall, Shenwan Hongyuan fundamentals are reflective of a mid-tier firm struggling to stand out.
2. Guotai Junan Placement: A Reasonable Price for Reasonable Performance
Guotai Junan Securities (H) (2611 HK), a Chinese securities firm, has launched a primary placement to raise HK$2.7 billion ($345 million) at a placing price of HK$16.34. The placing price is a 7% discount to the last close price of HK$17.64.
In 2019, the share prices of Chinese securities firms have markedly risen YTD due to the strong index performance and rising trading volumes. We believe Guotai Junan’s fundamentals are reasonable due to its mid-tier revenue growth and top-quartile margins. Overall, we would participate in the placing.
3. Guotai Junan Securities Placement Quick Take – Might Be Too Big to Sail
Guotai Junan Securities (H) (2611 HK) plans to raise around US$350m via placing new H-Shares. We had earlier covered the IPO, you can find our coverage below:
- Guotai Junan Securities IPO: Second, if Not the Largest, China Security Broker, A-H Premium Examined
- Guotai Junan IPO: A Big Player but Relatively Less Liquid, How A-H Premium Plays
This is a large deal to digest and the shares seem to be trading at a relatively tighter A-H spread versus peers.
4. Studio City – Thoughts on Lock-Up Expiry
Studio City, a spin-off by MLCO US, was listed on October 18th, 2018 and its lock-up will expire next week on April 16th. The company raised USD 359 million in its IPO with the majority of the shares taken up by its shareholders.
In this insight, we will review the company’s operation, shares subject to lock-up expiry and its valuation vs peers.
Our previous insights on Studio City
- Studio City (新濠影汇) IPO: A Melco Spin-Off Turning Profitable
- Studio City (新濠影汇) IPO: Attractive Valuation with Options for Long-Term Upside (Part 2)
- Studio City (新濠影汇) IPO Trading Update: Performance Within Expectations, Near-Term Upside Capped
5. Changliao (畅聊) AKA Paipai (派派) Pre-IPO Review – Self-Sufficient
Changliao Inc (CL HK) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming IPO. The company just filed its draft prospectus with the HKEX last week.
Changliao is a fast-growing social networking entertainment platform. The business model of engaging and monetizing users through interactive games is interesting.
However, the need for an IPO is questionable since the company has a healthy net cash balance sheet and it had paid out dividends in the past two years. It can easily finance its growth through debt or operating cash flow.
Tencent is an investor in the firm, however, it had only invested RMB9m in the company in FY2016. There are no other notable investors despite several rounds of financing.
In this insight, we will look at the company’s business model, analyze its financial performance and operating metrics.
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