In this briefing:
- Maoyan Entertainment (猫眼娱乐) Post-IPO: The CNY Box Office Catalyst Hasn’t Materialized
- Hansoh Pharma IPO Preview: A Decent Story Tarnished by a Huge Pre-IPO Dividend
- MINT Placement – Well Flagged Placement but Only Marginally Accretive, Past Deals Have Done Well
- CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
1. Maoyan Entertainment (猫眼娱乐) Post-IPO: The CNY Box Office Catalyst Hasn’t Materialized
We mentioned in our previous note prior to the listing of Maoyan Entertainment on Feb 4th that Chinese New Year (CNY) Box office from the two movies, namely Pegasus and The New King of Comedy that the company invested could be a catalyst post listing. However, our analysis of CNY box office data suggests although Pegasus reported box office revenues slightly north of RMB 1bn, it is far behind the number one movie, The Wandering Earth’s RMB 2bn box office. In addition to the company-specific movie investment, the overall box office for the CNY holiday has been disappointing, suggesting a challenging year for the movie industry in 2019.
Our previous coverage on Maoyan Entertainment
- Entertainment Plus (猫眼娱乐) IPO: The Engineered Movie Ticketing Leader that Runs Out of Steam (Part 1)
- Entertainment Plus (猫眼娱乐) IPO: The Coming Regulatory Bang Isn’t That Bad (Part 2)
- Maoyan Entertainment (猫眼娱乐) IPO: Turning Profitable, Thoughts on Valuation
- Maoyan Entertainment (猫眼娱乐) IPO: Lackluster Demand but CNY Blockbusters Could Be a Catalyst
2. Hansoh Pharma IPO Preview: A Decent Story Tarnished by a Huge Pre-IPO Dividend
Hansoh Pharmaceutical (HANSOH HK) claims to be one of the few R&D driven Chinese pharmaceutical companies. According to press reports, Hansoh aims to launch its Hong Kong IPO to raise $1 billion this month. Over the track record period, Hansoh’s financial performance shows accelerating revenue growth, relatively stable margins and solid cash generation.
Hansoh has the elements of a decent growth story, but our optimism is tempered due to mixed prospects for its drugs. Also, the huge pre-IPO dividend of RMB4.0 billion ($0.6 billion) will likely raise questions on the timing and size of the IPO.
3. MINT Placement – Well Flagged Placement but Only Marginally Accretive, Past Deals Have Done Well
Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT SP) plans to raise around US$130m to part fund its recent acquisitions.
The deal scores well on our framework given the company’s good track record and recent price momentum. In addition, past deals have done well. Furthermore, when the acquisition of 18 Tai Seng was announced the company had also highlighted that it could look to raise equity to part fund the acquisition. Thus, the deal isn’t likely to be a surprise for existing unitholders.
However, as per the company’s own forecast’s the deal is likely to be only marginally accretive adding less than 1% to DPU. Thus, even though its well flagged and past deals have done well, short-term returns might be limited.
4. CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
CStone Pharma, a Wuxi Apptec related biotech company, plans to raise USD 300m to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In our previous insight (link here), we have discussed CStone’s drug candidate pipeline, founders, management team and investors.
In this insight, we will provide a detailed valuation breakdown for its key products. Our base case post-money valuation for CStone is USD 1.4 bn, which is 30% above its pre-IPO valuation of USD 1.05 bn but at the low end of the guided valuation range.
Our coverage on biotech listing
- CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Strong Assembly and Backing (Part 1)
- Viva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: When CRO Becomes Early Stage Biotech Investor
- Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: Takeaways from Recent 4+7 City Centralized Tender Results
- Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: A Leading Generic Player with Regulatory Overhang (Part 1)
- WuXi Apptec (药明康德) IPO: This A+H Listing Will Be Different
- Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect
- Ascentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
- Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
- Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Early in Application but Behind in Key Indications (Part 1)
- CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Promising Pre-Clinical Results but Vaccine Scandal Weighs (Part 1)
- AOBiome Therapeutics IPO: Hope for Natural Therapeutic Treatment
- Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: Pricing the PD-1 and Biosimilars Competition (Part 2)
- Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: A Major PD-1 MAb Competitor Might Have Just Emerged (Part 1)
- MicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
- Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
- Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Reviving Roche’s Failed Attempt?
- BeiGene (百济神州) IPO: Dual-Listing with Upside Capped in the Near Term
- Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Valuation Not Justified by Ganovo and Ravidasvir NPV (Part 3)
- Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Three Valuation Risk Factors (Part 2)
- Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Emerging Player in the Crowded HCV Drug Market
- China Isotope & Radiation IPO: Oligopoly, Visible Growth and High Barrier to Entry
- Zai Lab IPO: Thoughts on Valuation, Risks and Upsides (Part 2)
- Zai Lab IPO: Experienced Team, Promising In-Licensing Drug Pipeline (Part 1)
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