Brief IPOs & Placements: Hyundai Autoever IPO Valuation Analysis and more

In this briefing:

1. Hyundai Autoever IPO Valuation Analysis
2. Polycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE Model = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown
3. RHB Bank Placement – A Little Less Surprising but Little Bit Bigger Deal
4. Nio (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry – Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers
5. LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing

1. Hyundai Autoever IPO Valuation Analysis

Hyundai Autoever Corp (0978519D KS) IPO institutional investors bookbuilding starts in about seven days. In conclusion, we believe a 11-13x EV/EBIT valuation multiples are appropriate for Hyundai Autoever. These multiples are between the average comps multiples and slightly lower multiples than Samsung SDS’ level. Our base case implied market cap is 1.25 trillion won, representing 59,454 won, or 35% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of 44,000 won. As such, we would take this deal. 

To value Hyundai Autoever, we prefer to use EV/EBIT multiples. However, we have also referenced P/Sales and P/E multiples based valuations for comparison purposes. The comps have better sales growth, operating profit growth, and balance sheet strength. However, Hyundai Autoever has better net margin and ROE. 

We believe that Hyundai Autoever should trade at lower EV/EBIT multiples than Samsung SDS but similar to higher multiples than POSCO ICT and Lotte Data Communications. Hyundai Autoever is expected to play a key role in the Hyundai Motor Group’s push to become a leading global player of autonomous driving in the coming decade. 

2. Polycab IPO: Largest Cables Player, Asset-Heavy Low ROE Model = Vulnerable to Govt Capex Slowdown

• Polycab India (POLY IN) is the largest wires and cables manufacturer in India almost 2x the size of its next largest competitor. It is also present in electrical consumer durables and EPC projects.
• Company’s 14% revenue Cagr over FY14-18 was aided by government’s increased capex in rural and railway electrification.
• Despite large B2B exposure, company managed to defend gross margins over FY15-18 by passing on input cost variations to its customers. Operating margins have also been steady on the back of improving margins in the key wires and cables segment.
• High B2B nature of business results in 90+days of working capital cycle. Business is capex heavy (annual run rate Rs2.4bn over FY15-18). Company has the lowest asset turnover among its listed peers. It also generates the lowest amount of free cashflows among its peers.
• Investing most of the operating cash in the business would have been great if company was generating healthy ROE. But company’s ROE is in the sub 15% range and it would fall further after the planned Rs5bn primary issue.
• The asset-heavy and low ROE model makes Polycab more dependent on earnings growth to drive stock performance. This, in turn, makes it more vulnerable to any slowdown in government capex in electrification compared to peers.

3. RHB Bank Placement – A Little Less Surprising but Little Bit Bigger Deal

Aabar Investments, plans to sell US$250m worth of its RHB Bank Bhd (RHBBANK MK) or about 4.76% of company to reduce its holding to just under 10%. 

This is the second sell-down by Aabar in less than a year. The earlier selldown in August 2018, RHB Bank Placement – Probably More Selldown in the Coming Months, was priced at the low-end and didn’t do much in the first week. That was a smaller and less well flagged selldown. 

Although, the stock has done well since then and is trading 12.5% above the last selldown price. The deal scores well on our framework given its strong earnings and price momentum. However, the overhang risk from the remaining 9.9% stake held by Aabar remains. 

4. Nio (蔚来) Lock-Up Expiry – Scattered Pre-IPO Investors to Be the Sellers

NIO Inc (NIO US)‘s lock-up will expire next week on the 11th of March. Shareholding breakdown suggests that there will be overhang upon lock-up expiry due to the large number of scattered pre-IPO shareholders. 

In this insight, we will look at the principal and pre-IPO investors and analyze who and how many shares would likely be sold upon lock-up expiry.

5. LYFT Pre-IPO – Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing

Lyft Inc (0812823D US) plans to list in the US at a valuation of US$20-25bn, as per media reports. 

Overall growth numbers have been great but some of the numbers are missing like the quarterly driver numbers, the number of shared riders versus single riders, organic growth in major cities, and progress of Canada operations, to name a few.

In my view, without the quarterly active driver numbers and the full picture of the extent of shared rides, one can’t develop an accurate picture of the business.