In this briefing:
- HLX02: Innovation Could Overtake
- Aruhi Placement – Bigger than the IPO but Good Track Record and Price Performance Should Help
- ECM Weekly (16 February 2019) – ByteDance, Embassy Office REIT, AB InBev Asia, CStone, Dexin
1. HLX02: Innovation Could Overtake
The oncology treatment landscape in China is evolving rapidly as the government has prioritized access to innovative drugs to meet this significant unmet need. In particular, investors considering the Shanghai Henlius Biotech (1566213D HK) listing should be aware of the emergence of a drug that potentially is superior to Roche Holding AG (ROG SW)‘s Herceptin (and Shanghai Henlius’ HLX02) for the treatment of patients with HER2-positive breast cancer (and ultimately HER2-positive gastric cancer). While there should be good demand for cheaper alternatives to Herceptin, the availability of a superior alternative potentially shortens the lifecycle of Herceptin biosimilars.
China has only recently “modernized” its drug approval and reimbursement, so there is little precedent to rely upon to estimate the speed and magnitude of changes in the market. As brokers rollout forecasts for the company and HLX02, investors should ask if the numbers somehow reflect this risk.
We do not have a view of the offering, but tag this Insight as Bearish because we are highlighting a potential risk.
2. Aruhi Placement – Bigger than the IPO but Good Track Record and Price Performance Should Help
Carlyle, along with SBI, plans to sell the rest of its stake in Aruhi Corp (7198 JP) for around US$280m.
Aruhi listed in Dec 2017, when Carlyle sold 18m shares. This is the second and final tranche of shares owned by Carlyle. The total sale accounts for 41% of the company’s outstanding shares making it a relatively large deal to digest.
However, the shares have done well since listing and the stock scores well on our framework. Valuations appear reasonable, if the company is able to achieve its mid-term targets.
3. ECM Weekly (16 February 2019) – ByteDance, Embassy Office REIT, AB InBev Asia, CStone, Dexin
Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
It has been a fairly quiet week in the ECM space.
We are hearing that Douyu (game streaming like HUYA Inc (HUYA US), Tiger Brokers (backed by Jim Rogers), Genshuixue (education) have either filed confidentially or seeking to list in the US.
In Hong Kong, Bank of Guizhou is said to be planning for a US$1bn IPO and we heard that Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management is pre-marketing for its US$200m IPO. The PHIP has already been filed on the Hong Kong Exchange.
For upcoming IPOs, Dexin China Holdings (2019 HK) opened its books on Thursday, seeking to raise up to US$220m. We covered the IPO in Dexin China (德信中国) IPO Review – Key Issues Remain but 9M Results Showed Strong Growth.
In India, Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) pushed back its IPO to March – April. Sumeet Singh has already written a pre-IPO note, Embassy Office Parks REIT – Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish.
Last but not least, in Korea, Douglas Kim has already written an note on the Homeplus REIT (HREIT KS)‘s US$1.5bn IPO in Homeplus REIT IPO – The Largest Ever REIT IPO in Korea.
Other pre-IPO notes on upcoming mega IPOs that Aequitas Research have covered include ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1), ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2), and Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – A Brief History of the Asia Pacific Operations – Eeking Out Growth in China.
Accuracy Rate:
Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.8% for Placements
(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)
New IPO filings
- Reliance General Insurance (re-filed, India)
Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.
News on Upcoming IPOs
- PineBridge-backed Uniparts gets SEBI nod to float IPO
- Cal-Comp Philippines eyes IPO by third quarter
- JERA new president says IPO is an option
- Singapore’s Zalora explores listing to fuel expansion
- S. Korea’s Homeplus files for up to $1.5 bln REIT IPO
- Korean bio unicorn in the making, Voronoi, to join the Kosdaq this year
Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO
- Homeplus REIT IPO – The Largest Ever REIT IPO in Korea
- Ecopro BM IPO: Valuation Analysis
- Embassy Office Parks REIT – Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish
- CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
- Hansoh Pharma IPO Preview: A Decent Story Tarnished by a Huge Pre-IPO Dividend
- Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – A Brief History of the Asia Pacific Operations – Eeking Out Growth in China
- ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)
- ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)
- Dreamtech IPO: Valuation Analysis
- Dexin China (德信中国) IPO Review – Key Issues Remain but 9M Results Showed Strong Growth
List of pre-IPO Coverage on Smartkarma
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