In this briefing:
- ECM Weekly (23 March 2019) – ESR, Sun Car, Ruhnn, CanSino, Frontage, Wuxi Bio, WiseTech,
- Woori Financials Placement – One Overhang Gone in a Well Flagged Deal, Another Remains
- Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) IPO Trading Update – First Day Volume Was Higher than Futu, Close to QTT
- Wuxi Biologics Placement – Past Deals Have Done Well but Progressive Returns Are Getting Lower
- Ruhnn (如涵) Pre-IPO Review- Significant Concentration Risk
1. ECM Weekly (23 March 2019) – ESR, Sun Car, Ruhnn, CanSino, Frontage, Wuxi Bio, WiseTech,
Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
Theme of the week: Block trades/Placements + news flow on upcoming IPOs
Starting with placements, the shareholders of Wuxi Biologics (Cayman) Inc (2269 HK) are back on the market again to sell some shares. They been quite consistent with the selling and our team have covered the company the IPO each of the placements. Wisetech Global (WTC AU) and Platinum Asset Management (PTM AU) also had blocks that were sold earlier this week. The former did excceedingly well post-placement, currently more than 10% above its deal price while the latter had struggled as a result of Kerr and his ex-wife selling a portion of their shares in the company.
As for upcoming IPOs, Hong Kong ECM activity is ramping up. Megvii, the Chinese AI startup is looking to list in Hong Kong or US whereas China Feihe (FEIHE HK) is said to be revisit its US$1bn HK IPO. Ke Yan, CFA, FRM has covered the latter in this insight almost two years ago.
We also heard that Frontage had already met investors and Ke Yan, CFA, FRM has provided preliminary thoughts on valuation in:
Mulsanne Group (previously known as Alpha Smart (GXG)), Xinyi Energy Holdings, CMGE Tech, and 360 ludashi (鲁大师) re-filed their draft prospectuses. We have covered Mulsanne and Xinyi Energy in:
- Alpha Smart Pre-IPO – PE Investors Recovered 56% of Their Cost in Two Years but Left It in Debt
- Xinyi Energy (信义能源) IPO: High Dividend Yield but Depreciating Asset
- CMGE Tech (中手游) Pre-IPO Review – Unfortunate Timing
360 ludashi’s previous filing indicated that its IPO deal size will be small (<US$100m). However, the updated financials shown an almost 50% YoY PATMI growth which could put its IPO at a borderline deal size of US$100m if growth maintains at 50%.
In the U.S, Yunji Inc. (YJ US) filed for a US$200m IPO. The company runs a Chinese e-commerce site that uses a social platform to promote its products. We will be writing an early note on the company next week.
In Singapore, Eagle Hospitality REIT is said to have started investor education for its IPO while Lendlease is planning to raise up to US$500m for its retail REIT according to media reports.
In other ASEAN markets, there are also a handful of IPOs to watch out for.
- In Indonesia, Lion Air is said to be targeting US$1bn listing in the third quarter of this year and it is starting to gauge investor interest. MAP Actif has already started pre-marketing its IPO.
- In Thailand, Kerry Express Thailand is said to have hired banks to prepare for a >US$100m IPO.
- In Malaysia, QSR Brands (QSR MY) has started to pre-market for its US$500m IPO. Sumeet Singh had previously written an early note:
Accuracy Rate:
Our overall accuracy rate is 72.3% for IPOs and 64.3% for Placements
(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)
New IPO filings
- Yunji (the U.S, ~US$200m)
- 360 LuDaShi (Hong Kong, potentially >US$100m)
- CMGE Tech (Hong Kong, re-filed)
- Mulsanne Group – FKA Alpha Smart – AKA GXG (Hong Kong, re-filed)
- Xinyi Energy (Hong Kong, re-filed)
Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.
News on Upcoming IPOs
- Chinese AI start-up Megvii mulls IPO in either Hong Kong or New York to raise US$800m
- Lendlease planning to raise up to US$500m with retail Reit listing on SGX
- Indonesia’s Lion Air Starts Work on $1 Billion IPO
- Chinese Tower Operator Guodong Is Said to Plan Hong Kong IPO
- Feihe International ‘revisits plan for Hong Kong IPO’
- Solar co Xinyi Energy revives Hong Kong IPO plan
This week Analysis on Upcoming IPO
- Ruhnn (如涵) Pre-IPO Review- Significant Concentration Risk
- Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: Updates from 2018 Numbers
- Sun Car Insurance Agency (盛世大联) IPO: Over Valued Vs P&C Companies
- ESR Cayman Pre-IPO – Earnings and Segment Analysis
- CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Valuation Attractive, Lilly Asia Doubling Up (Part 4)
- PagerDuty IPO Preview
2. Woori Financials Placement – One Overhang Gone in a Well Flagged Deal, Another Remains
Woori Bank (000030 KS) plans to raise US$233m by selling its entire stake in Woori Financial Group (316140 KS).
The selldown has been well flagged as the company has been in the midst of converting to a Holdco, as a part of which it was given six months to sell this stake. The deal scores a marginal positive score on our framework owing to its earnings momentum and track record.
On the flip side, the government too has flagged its plans to sell its 18%+ stake, as soon as possible.
3. Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) IPO Trading Update – First Day Volume Was Higher than Futu, Close to QTT
Up Fintech (TIGR US)‘s IPO was priced at US$8/share, above its range of US$5-7/ADS raising at total of US$111m, including the proceeds from the private placement with Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US).
In my earlier insights, I looked at the company’s background, past financial performance, scored the deal on our IPO framework and compared it to Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US):
- Futu Holdings IPO Quick Note – Comparison with Tiger Brokers – Same Market, Different Economics
- Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) Pre-IPO Quick Note – Much Too Reliant on IBKR
- Up Fintech (Tiger Brokers) IPO Quick Take – It’s Not like Futu, Won’t Perform like It Either
In this insight, I will re-visit some of the deal dynamics, comment on share price drivers and provide a table with implied valuations.
4. Wuxi Biologics Placement – Past Deals Have Done Well but Progressive Returns Are Getting Lower
Biologics holdings is looking to raise upto US$517m by selling a 4.2% stake in Wuxi Biologics (Cayman) Inc (2269 HK). This will be fourth placement by the company since it listed less than two years ago. Below is a link to our coverage of the listing and the earlier placement:
- Jun 2017 – US$500m: WuXi Biologics IPO Review – An Opportunity to Get Exposure to Biologics in China
- Dec 2017- US$550m: Wuxi Biologics Placement – Selldown Right when Lockup Expires Suggests Eagerness to Offload
- Mar 2018 – US$600m: Wuxi Biologics Placement – In Time for the Next Lock-Up, Returns Will Probably Not Match Prior Ones
- Jun 2018 – US$500m: Wuxi Biologics Placement – Probably Not a Surprise to Sell Again when Lock-Up Expires
Each of the past placement has been of a similar size and has generally done well. The company recently reported results which were ahead of street estimates. The deal scores a marginal positive score on our framework but there is still a lot more selling left once the 90-day lock-up expires.
5. Ruhnn (如涵) Pre-IPO Review- Significant Concentration Risk
Ruhnn Holding Ltd (RUHN US) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming IPO.
The company is an internet key opinion leader (KOL) incubator in China. Revenue and GMV grew at impressive rates of 63% and 57% YoY in FY2018, respectively.
The idea of being able to leverage on KOLs influence over consumers to understand demand and retain consumers is interesting but Ruhnn has yet to demonstrate that it has a sustainable business model.
Gross margin has deteriorated and losses widened as a percentage of revenue. Service fee paid to KOLs as a percentage of revenue has increased and showed little improvement in 9M FY2019. The company depends heavily on the top KOL, Zhang Dayi, to generate revenue, almost half of the company’s GMV and revenue is generated from her.
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