In this briefing:
- ECM Weekly (23 February 2019) – Futu, CStone, Dexin, New Century, AB InBev, MabPharma
- MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
- New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses
- A Trading Strategy for EcoproBM Post IPO
- New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Pre-IPO – Improved Profitability Not Driven by Underlying Operations
1. ECM Weekly (23 February 2019) – Futu, CStone, Dexin, New Century, AB InBev, MabPharma
Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
Starting with listings in Hong Kong next week, CStone Pharma (2616 HK) and Dexin China Holdings (2019 HK) will list on the 26th of February. Dexin is said to have priced at the mid-point of its price range while CStone is priced above its mid-point.
We also heard that Haitong Unitrust International Leasing was given the green light by CSRC for its Hong Kong IPO. The company had previously re-filed its draft prospectus in September last year. Shanghai Dongzheng Automotive Finance has also received approval from CSRC for its IPO.
There had also been a small property developer, YinCheng, that had launched its US$100m IPO. Jinxin Fertility had also just filed its draft prospectus with the HKEX.
Back in the US, we are hearing that Futu Holdings Ltd (FHL US) could be starting its bookbuild as early as next week. Sumeet Singh had previously analyzed the company in his insight, Futu Holdings Pre-IPO – Great Metrics but in a Commoditised Industry, and he will be following up with another insight next week.
In Japan, there is an Aruhi Corp (7198 JP) placement in which Carlyle looking to sell their entire stake in the company. Sumeet Singh had covered in Aruhi Placement – Bigger than the IPO but Good Track Record and Price Performance Should Help. The placement would be more attractive if it corrects down over the next few days but the removal of overhang from Carlyle seemed to be very well received by the market and the share price had even traded up 13% on Wednesday this week.
Accuracy Rate:
Our overall accuracy rate is 72.1% for IPOs and 63.7% for Placements
(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)
New IPO filings
- Jinxin Fertility Group (US$600m, Hong Kong)
Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.
News on Upcoming IPOs
- Fund Companies Ask Hong Kong to Relax IPO Investment Rules
- Chinese Tech Giants Seek Further IPO Rule Changes in Hong Kong
- Sembcorp could delay India energy IPO due to market conditions
- PNB Metlife IPO likely next fiscal
Smartkarma Community’s this week Analysis on Upcoming IPO
- New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses
- New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Pre-IPO – Improved Profitability Not Driven by Underlying Operations
- Ab InBev Asia Pre-IPO – Quick Note – More like CR Beer Rather than Tsingtao
- MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
- Hyundai Autoever IPO Preview
- Hyundai Autoever IPO Pricing: Likely to Be a Dull Event Given No Growth Story & Glovis Merger
- HLX02: Innovation Could Overtake
2. MabPharma (迈博医药) IPO: Assembled for a Trade?
MabPharma, backed by Chinese private equity investor CDH, is seeking to list in Hong Kong. In this insight, we will discuss the following topics:
- The company’s background
- Details of pipeline drug candidates, the potential market of these products and the competition
- Shareholders and investors
- Questions for management meetings
- Summary of our likes and concerns
We will leave the discussion of valuation for our next insight.
Our coverage in the healthcare and biotech sectors:
- CStone Pharma (基石药业) IPO: Strong Assembly and Backing (Part 1)
Viva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: When CRO Becomes Early Stage Biotech Investor
- Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: Takeaways from Recent 4+7 City Centralized Tender Results
- Hansoh Pharma (翰森制药) IPO: A Leading Generic Player with Regulatory Overhang (Part 1)
- WuXi Apptec (药明康德) IPO: This A+H Listing Will Be Different
- Frontage Holding (方达控股) IPO: More Disclosure Needed to Understand Moat and Growth Prospect
- Ascentage Pharma (亚盛医药) IPO: Too Early for an IPO
- Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation (Part 2)
- Junshi Bioscience (君实医药) IPO: Early in Application but Behind in Key Indications (Part 1)
- CanSino Biologics (康希诺) IPO: Promising Pre-Clinical Results but Vaccine Scandal Weighs (Part 1)
- AOBiome Therapeutics IPO: Hope for Natural Therapeutic Treatment
- Stealth Biotherapeutics IPO: Cure the Symptoms but Not the Cause (Part 1)
- Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: Pricing the PD-1 and Biosimilars Competition (Part 2)
- Innovent Biologics (信达生物) IPO: A Major PD-1 MAb Competitor Might Have Just Emerged (Part 1)
- MicuRx Pharma (盟科医药) IPO: Betting on Single Drug in the Not so Attractive Antibiotic Segment
- Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
- Hua Medicine (华领医药) IPO: Reviving Roche’s Failed Attempt?
- BeiGene (百济神州) IPO: Dual-Listing with Upside Capped in the Near Term
- Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Valuation Not Justified by Ganovo and Ravidasvir NPV (Part 3)
- Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Three Valuation Risk Factors (Part 2)
- Ascletis Pharma (歌礼制药) IPO: Emerging Player in the Crowded HCV Drug Market
- China Isotope & Radiation IPO: Oligopoly, Visible Growth and High Barrier to Entry
- Zai Lab IPO: Thoughts on Valuation, Risks and Upsides (Part 2)
- Zai Lab IPO: Experienced Team, Promising In-Licensing Drug Pipeline (Part 1)
3. New Century Hotel Mgmt IPO Preview: Two-Speed Businesses
Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (ZHEKAIH HK) is a leading hotel group in China engaged in the operation and management of mid-scale and upscale hotel chains. New Century has started pre-marketing for a Hong Kong IPO to raise up to $200 million, according to press reports.
New Century has two business units – hotel operation and hotel management. Overall, we believe that the IPO is unattractive due to the mixed prospects of the two businesses.
4. A Trading Strategy for EcoproBM Post IPO
- In this report, we provide a trading strategy for Ecopro BM Co Ltd (247540 KS) IPO, which is expected to start trading on March 5th. The IPO price has been determined at 48,000 won, which is 19% higher than the mid-point of the original IPO price range of 37,500 won to 42,900 won. The institutional investors’ demand for the Ecopro BM IPO was extremely strong at 988 to 1.
- In our previous report Ecopro BM IPO: Valuation Analysis, we proposed the base case to high end of the company’s value to be between 56,000 won and 67,800 won. Given the enormous institutional demand for this IPO, it appears that our base case valuation (56,000 won), which is 17% higher than the IPO price, may be too conservative.
- A more likely scenario now is that the stock reaches about 65,000 won to 70,000 won in the first few hours of trading on the first day, overshooting its intrinsic value and sells off a bit for a few days/weeks, enters a consolidation phase and then resumes its higher share price again.
5. New Century Hotel (浙江開元酒店) Pre-IPO – Improved Profitability Not Driven by Underlying Operations
Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (ZHEKAIH HK) (ZNCH) is looking to raise US$220m in its upcoming IPO.
ZNCH is a hotel operator and manager with presence across China. The company grew its revenue by a modest 5% from 2015 to 2017 but made significant improvements in profitability. Gross profit, EBITDA and PATMI grew by 33%, 61%, and 132% CAGR over the same period.
However, the improved profitability has not been driven by underlying operations. The company seemed a tad too ambitious to be expanding via leasing hotel when it already has a large hotel management pipeline.
In this insight, we will look at the company’s financial and operational performance, the drivers of its strong margin expansion, and include some questions for management.
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