Daily Industrials: U.S. Equity Strategy: Oversold Rally Continues and more

In this briefing:

1. U.S. Equity Strategy: Oversold Rally Continues
2. Korean Stubs Spotlight: A Pair Trade Between BGF Co. & BGF Retail
3. A Round up of Some Japanese Equities Buys as We Begin the New Year.
4. Healius (HLS AU): Bid Rejection Provides Option Value
5. IPO Radar: AutoCorp, Honda’s Avatar in Thailand

1. U.S. Equity Strategy: Oversold Rally Continues

A combination of, optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade talks, and Fed Chairman Powell’s comments have led to a continuation of the oversold bounce which began on 12/26, and the S&P 500 is now trading just below the 12/19 pre-Fed rate hike area. ~2,350 on the S&P 500 remains the support level to monitor. A retest of this low remains the most likely scenario, though it is far from a guarantee due to the potential for a “V” reversal. We examine an array of factors leading to our intact cautious outlook, and highlight attractive set-ups within Consumer Discretionary and Health Care Sectors.

2. Korean Stubs Spotlight: A Pair Trade Between BGF Co. & BGF Retail

In this report, we provide an analysis of our pair trade idea between BGF Co Ltd (027410 KS) and Bgf Retail (282330 KS). Our strategy will be to be long BGF Co & Short BGF Retail. BGF Co Ltd (027410 KS)‘s share price plummeted by 48% in the past year while Bgf Retail (282330 KS) had a tiny gain of 0.7% in the same period. In the past year, BGF Co was down versus BGF Retail for pretty much the entire year. The BGF/BGF Retail share price ratio has been trending downwards since March 23rd, 2018. The current ratio is 0.037 and it is now close to approaching two σ. 

The following are the major catalysts that could boost BGF Co shares higher than BGF Retail shares within the next six months. 

• Temporary relief from big market fears, seasonality, & trading volume 

• Market’s concerns about the size of tender offer rather than the value of BGF Co post tender offer in 2018 
• NAV discount to its intrinsic value at an all-time high – Our NAV analysis of BGF Co suggests that it is trading at a 51% discount to its NAV, which is close to its all time highest discount. Typically, the Korean holdcos trade at a 20-40% discount to their intrinsic value so it is unusual for the holdco to trade with so much discount. 
• Government is likely to slow down the minimum wage hikes 

• Potential increases in brand usage fees

3. A Round up of Some Japanese Equities Buys as We Begin the New Year.

Please see some recent buy ideas, all very cheap, that we believe offer decent longer term growth and have had a dreadful December. We have written on all recently and below is a summary of the main points as well as an some valuation metrics. All are sensibly priced in our view now. 

4. Healius (HLS AU): Bid Rejection Provides Option Value

Healius (HLS AU), formerly known as Primary Health Care (PRY AU), is a leading Australian owner of GP clinics and pathology centres. Healius just took four days to reject Jangho Group Co Ltd A (601886 CH)’s 3 January 2018 proposal of A$3.25 cash per share as it “is opportunistic and fundamentally undervalues Healius.”

5. IPO Radar: AutoCorp, Honda’s Avatar in Thailand

In August 2017, Honda stole the top spot in Thai passenger cars from Toyota and held it for a few months. They are still formidable players, and ACG (AutoCorp) which runs Honda dealerships and service centers across Thailand, is expected to IPO some time in 2019. Here’s our quick look at the company.

• We value this IPO at Bt2/sh using DCF, since there’s really no good comparables. The company is expected to enjoy slower revenue growth and higher margins going forward as car sales slow down nationally and maintenance becomes a bigger chunk of the revenues.
• They only operate in four provinces and run 8 showrooms with over 6,000 sqm of display space. The service centers account for almost 17,200 sqm. The big chunk comes from lower margin car sales. Along with accessories, these account for 84% of revenues.
• The IPO is firmly underwritten by Singapore’s Phillips Securities and is good for more than a quarter of shares outstanding (26%). The founding Rangkanuwat family control all remaining shares and have committed to 6 month lock-up period.