In this briefing:
- S&P 500 Revisiting 2,600 Support
- Wonik Merger Swap: Div-Adjusted Yield Is Now at 4.17% – Cancellation Risk Is Slim
- SEAFCO (SEAFCO TB): Solid Backlog, Solid Profitability
- Renesas: Visit Suggests Utilisation Rate Rebound Could Take Longer Than Sell-Side Expects
- China Tower: Changing Our View to Positive. Low Cost Expansion Should Generate Better Returns
1. S&P 500 Revisiting 2,600 Support
The S&P 500 was not able to break through the 2,817 and 100-day moving average resistance levels last week, and has now fallen abruptly back to test 2,600 support. For now our outlook remains cautious and we continue to expect heightened volatility and horizontal consolidation between the aforementioned support and resistance levels. Absent any real clarity in regards to Fed policy or U.S.-China trade relations, the S&P 500 is vulnerable to a breakdown. We highlight opportunities within Pharmaceuticals and Waste Services, two areas of the market with defensive characteristics that currently exhibit timely technicals.
2. Wonik Merger Swap: Div-Adjusted Yield Is Now at 4.17% – Cancellation Risk Is Slim
- Wonik IPS (240810 KS) / Wonik Tera Semicon (123100 KS) merger got shareholder approval yesterday. Spread now stands at 4.28%. Spread peaked at 5.12% on Dec 12. Dividend-adjusted spread is 4.17%.
- Tera Semicon is a bit of a concern. Its stock purchase price is 1.38% higher than current price. Worst case would be half of the minority shareholders claiming rights. Even if so, this would be less than ₩60bil. The company is liquid enough to absorb it.
- Local institutional arb traders have been seen doing this trade, at least partly. I’d make this trade when spread widens to 5~6%. I expect it to get to this level very soon.
3. SEAFCO (SEAFCO TB): Solid Backlog, Solid Profitability
- Sales on an upward trend, good core profit return, and earnings on an upward trend relative to its sector
- Well-positioned to win some upcoming bids for public and private projects such as the MRT Purple Line, expressway, and high-speed train to boost earnings moving forward, net profit up by 134% in 3Q18 YoY
- Strong backlog of public and private projects amounting to around Bt3bn to help sustain revenue growth, 104% in 3Q18 YoY
- Trades below Thai Industrials at 19CE* 4.1x PB, offers much higher ROE, and a solid balance sheet
- Risks: Delay in construction, volatility in raw materials prices
* Consensus Estimates
4. Renesas: Visit Suggests Utilisation Rate Rebound Could Take Longer Than Sell-Side Expects
We visited Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) this week to discuss progress on inventory reduction and its likely ramp of utilisation rates/wafer throughput, as well as to gather further details on the IDT acquisition and its long -term strategy. On the whole, we continue to like the long-term picture, consider the stock to be undervalued and believe investors with long time horizons should be looking at the stock on the long side. However, our discussions suggested to us that while production cuts to reduce inventory should be completed this month or at worst in 1Q2019, a ramp in utilisation rates could take longer than is implied by consensus.
5. China Tower: Changing Our View to Positive. Low Cost Expansion Should Generate Better Returns
At the time of the IPO we were quite negative on China Tower (788 HK) prospects. However, in recent calls and meetings our view has changed and become more constructive. Chris Hoare now believes that China Tower is managing to generate co-location growth outside the Master Services Agreement (MSA) and at a much lower level of capital intensity (perhaps up to 50%) than indicated in the IPO. Management has also proven to be more open to shareholders than expected and with lower capex, higher FCF generation we upgrade to a BUY with a HK$1.60 target price. The stock has started to move as the market has begun to understand the more positive outlook. It will be interesting to see if China Tower is allowed to retain these benefits long term.
Summary China Tower forecasts:
