In this briefing:
- EM Relative Strength Is Bottoming: Overweight
- FamilyMart: A Shrewd Head-Fake?
- FamilyMart Tender Offer for Don Quijote Misses The Mark as Mr. Partridge Stands Pat
- CJ Corp Share Class: Huge Net Gain Difference Between Common & Pref from Stock Dividend
- Company Visits: The Best of November/December 2018
1. EM Relative Strength Is Bottoming: Overweight
Relative strength for MSCI EM is bottoming vs. MSCI EAFE despite continued global equity market weakness. Although the MSCI EM’s price index remains in a downtrend, we are seeing signs of outperformance ona a relative strength basis and would add incremental exposure. In this report we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.
2. FamilyMart: A Shrewd Head-Fake?
We think the failed tender but continued asset sale between Familymart Uny (8028 JP) and Don Quijote (7532 JP) is astutely beneficial for Familymart Uny Holdings (8028 JP) and parent Itochu Corp (8001 JP) . More details below
3. FamilyMart Tender Offer for Don Quijote Misses The Mark as Mr. Partridge Stands Pat
In October, the Nikkei leaked and Familymart Uny Holdings (8028 JP) immediately thereafter announced that Familymart would sell the rest of its GMS (and financing) subsidiary UNY to Don Quijote Holdings (7532 JP) (which bought 40% of the company in 2017) and would conduct a Tender Offer later in 2018 at a 20% premium to the then-current price to buy a stake in Don Quijote of just over 20%. The Tender Offer was announced November 6th. Familymart had arranged to borrow shares it did not manage to buy in the tender so that at the next record date it will have 20% of the voting rights by hook or by crook.
Don Quijote shares jumped to the Tender Offer price the same day and then spent a day there before investors decided that the news and structure of the deal was better news for Don Quijote than Familymart had priced in.
Results of the Tender Offer have just been announced. Familymart had been trying to buy 32,108,700 shares for JPY 212 billion. They just missed. They got 0.08% of the total desired, or 24,721 shares for just over JPY 163 million.
THEY GOT NOTHING.
I expect Familymart had zero idea this would happen. I expect their bankers are surprised as well. They should not have been. They analysed this badly. There was a decent chance they would find it difficult to dislodge shares from owners.
In FamilyMart Tender for Don Quijote – Elmer vs Mr. Partridge? I recalled how “Old Turkey” (from Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator) did not want to lose his position while Elmer was eager to take profits.
“I couldn’t think of selling that stock.” “You couldn’t?” asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself. It is a habit with most tip givers to be tip takers. “Why not?” And Elmer drew nearer. “Why, this is a bull market!” The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation.
Growth stock managers don’t like selling growth stocks until the growth stops growing. Don Quijote is still growing. And with UNY, Don Quijote may grow faster than previously expected.
The announcement at the end of the Tender Offer Results announcement is also VERY telling. There was a plan to make Don Quijote an equity-method affiliate by buying in the Tender Offer, buying in the market, or borrowing lots of shares. There was a plan for Familymart to appoint directors to DQ.
There was a clearly-available trading strategy based on that.
The new announcement puts that strategy into question. And Mr. Partridge might not be so inclined to call it a bull market. Since the launch of the deal, the markets have started the trip to Gehenna in a trug. From the one-month average prior to the Familymart bid news, Don Quijote is up 25%. Familymart is up 40%, the Nikkei 225 is down 10.7%, the TOPIX retail sector is down 5.5% but Familymart and Don Quijote have influenced that performance (without those two names, average performance is worse).
4. CJ Corp Share Class: Huge Net Gain Difference Between Common & Pref from Stock Dividend
- CJ Corp (001040 KS) announced a 0.15 stock dividend. CJ will issue a new class B pref. Both Common and Pref will get 0.15 class B pref shares for each share they already own. This new class B pref is convertible to Common with a 10 year duration. It gives an extra 2% of the face value to what Common gets. A total 4,226,513 new class B prefs will be issued.
- CJ previously had two class B prefs. Based on the historic discount % of these two, 2P’s discount to Common on the listing day is estimated at 33%. There will be nearly 10% price dilution in both Common and 1P. There will be a 10+%p difference in gain per share. 1P’s dilution-adjusted net gain per share stands at 13.61%, whereas Common is only 0.66%.
- Price ratio wise, 1P is in an undervalued territory. On a longer horizon, it is currently close to the 2Y mean. This stock dividend should push 1P further upward above the 2Y mean. CJ also said that it would give cash dividend. Current div yield difference is a historic high at 1.53%p. This should be another reason to push up 1P. I’d go long 1P and short Common at this point.
5. Company Visits: The Best of November/December 2018
During this quarter, we visited 13 companies and have to admit the average quality has improved. Amongst these, there were four stocks that impressed us the most, and the Oscars go to…
- SSP acheiving profit growth in excess of 20% in the backdrop of Thai economic headwinds and Trumpian trade wars by expanding into countries unaffected by both issues.
- Amata VN capitalizing on the shift from locations with rising labor costs (eg Thailand, China) to Vietnam, which has more than a few geographic and demographic advantages.
- Gunkul, arguably Thailand’s hottest renewable play at the moment delivering outsized long-term growth in solar/wind space as well as a promising solar roof game plan.
- TIGER, an aggressive and small construction company that has only IPO’d for less than a quarter and is already highlighting aggressive growth plans.
