In this briefing:
- HDC Holdings Goes Activist on Samyang Foods
- Last Week in GER Research: API/Sigma, M1, Eclipx/Mcmillan and Hansoh IPO
- M1 Ltd (M1 SP): Axiata Throws in the Towel, Delisting Looms
- THK (6481 JP): New Orders Down by Two-Thirds in 4Q, Near the Bottom of the Cycle
1. HDC Holdings Goes Activist on Samyang Foods
- We have a really interesting and unusual situation in Korea right now with HDC Holdings (012630 KS) going activist on Samyang Foods (003230 KS). HDC Holdings is the second largest owner of Samyang Foods.
- HDC Holdings is recommending that the company should exclude executive directors that have been sentenced to imprisonment on cases such as embezzlement and extreme negligence resulting in significant losses for Samyang Foods. This is an agenda which will be discussed in the Samyang Foods’ AGM next month on March 22nd.
- HDC Holdings is taking a very unusual move right now in going against the traditional “save face” mentality in the Korea Inc. and trying to publicly urge Samyang Foods to make changes to its BOD.
2. Last Week in GER Research: API/Sigma, M1, Eclipx/Mcmillan and Hansoh IPO
In this version of the GER weekly research wrap, we assess the bump prospects in the Australian Pharma Industries (API AU) / Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) potential merger. Arun updates on M1 Ltd (M1 SP) which could be delisted following an unconditional offer. In addition, we dig into the trading update for Eclipx (ECX AU) and assess the risks that Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU) could walk away from the deal. Finally, we initiate on the IPO of Hansoh Pharmaceutical (HANSOH HK). A calendar of upcoming catalysts is also attached.
More details can be found below.
Best of luck for the new week – Rickin, Venkat and Arun
3. M1 Ltd (M1 SP): Axiata Throws in the Towel, Delisting Looms
After the market close last Friday, M1 Ltd (M1 SP) announced that the voluntary conditional offer (VGO) became unconditional as Keppel Corp Ltd (KEP SP) and Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP) (KCL-SPH) has an interest in M1 of 76.4%. The offer became unconditional due to Axiata Group (AXIATA MK), the single largest shareholder with a 28.7% shareholding, accepting the offer.
KCL-SPH again extended the closing date of the offer from 18 February to 4 March 2019. M1’s shares are trading at S$2.04 per share, marginally below the VGO price of S$2.06 per share. We believe that the KCL-SPH should get the valid acceptances to complete the delisting and wholly own M1.
4. THK (6481 JP): New Orders Down by Two-Thirds in 4Q, Near the Bottom of the Cycle
Sales and profits were above management’s guidance in FY Dec-18, with operating profit rising 36.9% on a 10.9% increase in sales. But new orders continuously declined and were down about two-thirds year-on-year in 4Q.
In view of the order flow, management is guiding for a 12% decline in sales and a 44% decline in operating profit in FY Dec-19, a forecast that is roughly in line with our own.
On the positive side, historical data indicates that new orders are at or near the bottom of the cycle. Anticipating a better investment climate after some resolution of the U.S.-China trade problem, we are forecasting an increase in sales and profits going into FY Dec-20.
The shares have rebounded by 41% since the beginning of January. At ¥2,720 (Friday, February 15, close), they are selling at 15.6x our estimate for FY Dec-19 and 13.8x our estimate for FY Dec-20E. These multiples look reasonably attractive in comparison with the company’s recent P/E range.
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