Industrials: Katakura Industries, Cummins India and more

• The Katakura (3001 JP) MBO has failed. Nearly 60% tendered but I expect 85-90% of that 60% came from corporate and financial crossholders. 
• A new activist is in at ¥2,350/share, and that activist wants a higher price. 
• It is not clear there is a lot of downside here, but it is not clear what drives it up near-term either.

Lastly, ordering has been muted and cornered by unlisted peers, and we expect a pick-up from Q4FY22 with listed players winning a larger part of ordering. Q3FY22 mixed quarter: Unseasonal rains, NCR NGT ban, delays in appointed date, and a low contribution from Jal Jeevan mission orders have impacted Q3FY22 execution. On a case-by-case basis, the performance may differ based on order mix and appointed date. This is also the quarter in which some companies may continue to make their balance sheets leaner: (1) Ashoka sales of ACL toll assets (INR5bn write-off); (2) KNR monetisation of HAM asset to Cube; (3) Dilip monetisation of HAM assets to Cube; (4) LT refinancing of Hyderabad Metro debt; and (5) KPTL/JMC concluding Kohima asset sale/progress on restructuring of road asset.