In this briefing:
- Global Equity Strategy: Bearish with the Exception of EM.
- Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ) – Truly Industrious – On the Ground in J-Town
- Sea Ltd: A Surprise Winner in Cut-Throat E-Commerce Battle?
- Global Semiconductor Sales Fall In November 2018. This Is Not A Good Sign.
- Are US Stocks A Buy Yet?
1. Global Equity Strategy: Bearish with the Exception of EM.
Our cautious outlook and expectation for continued downward consolidation for global equities remains intact. Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and EM) are all trading within patterns of lower highs and lower lows, leading us to believe the most likely scenario is that this near-term bounce is likely nothing more than a countertrend rally before longer-term downtrends reassert themselves. The one bright spot is EM. In this report we highlight a number of attractive set-ups within the Financial, Communication, Engineering & Construction, and Transportation Sectors.
2. Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ) – Truly Industrious – On the Ground in J-Town
Indonesia has a shortage of good quality industrial companies but Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ) is most certainly an exception to this rule, with a track record of consistent long-term growth and strong corporate governance. After a slower 1H18 due to seasonal factors, the company saw a very strong performance in 3Q18, which looks set to continue into 2019.
A company visit in Jakarta revealed that it continues to focus on growing its higher margin heavy-duty filter revenues, with an ongoing emphasis on growing its export business.
Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ) should be a beneficiary of the US-China Trade War given much lower tariffs for Indonesian produced filters versus those from China. It has already seen a marked pick-up in enquiries from potential US customers.
Its domestic filter business continues to see strong growth, especially heavy-duty filter sales, which are benefitting from demand from commercial vehicles and heavy equipment demand, with higher unit costs and replacement rates in this space.
The company’s body-maker division is seeing even higher rates of growth than filters and decent visibility, with demand coming from heavy equipment customers such as United Tractors (UNTR IJ).
The company should be a beneficiary of the imposition of B20 standards for Indonesia, which will require companies to change filters more regularly.
It was also recently granted ISO14001:2015 Environmental Management System, which should be positive from an environmental and ESG perspective. This is important for its US and European sales in the long-term.
Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ) continues to be one of the few attractive industrial companies in Indonesia, with a very strong long-term record on sales growth and profitability. Its domestic filter business continues to see strong growth, with a significant tailwind from its body-maker division. It is also focused on growing both its export sales and at the same time its higher-margin heavy-duty filter business. According to Bloomberg Consensus Estimates, the company trades on 12.4x FY19E PER and 10.9x FY20E PER, with forecast EPS CAGR of 15% for FY19E and FY20E respectively.
3. Sea Ltd: A Surprise Winner in Cut-Throat E-Commerce Battle?
- A big takeaway from our conversations with Indo e-commerce industry sources is that they vouch for Shopee’s (Sea Ltd’s (SE US) e-commerce arm) MS gains story in the country.
- Indo e-commerce market has been enjoying super growth period (94% CAGR in 2015-18E) despite three major challenges (logistics, payment and highly subsidized market).
- With SE’s fund raising a matter of when, not if (2H20 as most likely timetable), Shopee’s tremendous progress in key metrics (MS, take rate) provides comfort.
- Assuming fair valuation of US$3 bn (vs. US$1.4 bn implied in SE’s ADR price) for Shopee, 12-mo PT for SE works out to be US$15.73/ADR, representing 43% upside potential.
4. Global Semiconductor Sales Fall In November 2018. This Is Not A Good Sign.
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) just announced that worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $41.4 billion for the month of November 2018, an increase of 9.8% YoY, but down 1.1% MoM, the first such decline since February 2018. While the decline is modest and total 2018 total semiconductor sales are on track to reach ~$470 billion for a YoY increase of 15.7%, any decline in what should be peak holiday season is not a good sign.
Semiconductor sales historically track Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) sales with a roughly six month time lag. North American WFE sales have been declining each month for the past six months meaning that this latest semiconductor MoM sales decline is right on schedule.
Leveraging a decade’s worth of historical data, we analyse two key questions that are likely on every investors mind. Firstly,for how long should we expect semiconductor sales to continue their decline. Secondly, how steep should we expect that decline to be?
5. Are US Stocks A Buy Yet?
- 5%-like rallies on Wall Street are signs of a bear market not a bull market
- Bull markets require strong liquidity and low risk appetite, neither yet apply
- Risk appetite readings at minus 12.6 are still above the minus 40 criterion for an upturn
- Recent large fall in risk appetite consistent with upcoming economic recession
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