In this briefing:
- Campaign Sparring Re: Islam / KPK on PLN / Gov’t Wants Unicorn IPOs / Loan Growth Uptick / WB on FDI
- Rental Rates for Last Mile Industrial Real Estate Poised to Move Higher in Most Key Global Markets
- The Year of Dithering Dangerously
- Tobacco: A Framework for Analyzing the Sin Sector from an ESG Perspective, with a Focus on ITC
- SCMA (SCMA IJ) – Biting the Digital Bullet – On the Ground in J-Town
1. Campaign Sparring Re: Islam / KPK on PLN / Gov’t Wants Unicorn IPOs / Loan Growth Uptick / WB on FDI
The Prabowo-Uno campaign are focusing on Central Java while elements on both fringes of the religious spectrum debate poligamy and whether Widodo is ‘criminalizing’ clerics. The KPK is investigating the head of the State Power Company (PLN) after court convicted BlackGold owner Johannes Kotjo. Information Minister Rudiantara wants IPOs for four giant startups. BI cited positive macro indicators, including 13% October credit expansion, but the World Bank warned that FDI inflows are too low.
2. Rental Rates for Last Mile Industrial Real Estate Poised to Move Higher in Most Key Global Markets
- New industry data this week, plus take-aways from our latest discussions with company managements, all confirm that the likely trend in the industrial segment of the global real estate industry is for rental rates to rise.
- The growth in e-commerce is continuing to accelerate globally. In some key market, this is “triggering a land grab for distribution space that experts say is accelerating”.
- Therefore, the increasing scarcity value of well situated industrial real estate in high demand markets is likely to continue to push up rental rates to higher and higher levels.
- Given our expectation that fundamentals driving the growing demand for Last Mile Industrial real estate are likely to persist, we continue to expect this segment to outperform the broader Real Estate sector for the foreseeable future.
3. The Year of Dithering Dangerously
President Joko Widodo, cabinet-level policymakers and the broader political elite are neglecting the imperative for economic reform at a particularly critical juncture. Prospects for improvement in a second Widodo term are questionable.
4. Tobacco: A Framework for Analyzing the Sin Sector from an ESG Perspective, with a Focus on ITC
Contrary to the perception that the rising adoption of socially responsible investment practices has caused Big Tobacco to be shunned by portfolio managers, our shareholding analysis shows that institutional holding in most of these ‘sin’ stocks has increased in the last 4 and 8 quarters.
Nevertheless, Big Tobacco suffered a pounding in 2018. Investors had bought into tobacco premising reduced risk products (Eg: e-cigarettes, Heat Not Burn products) would reduce regulatory risk and reverse decades of sales decline. As it turned out, regulators frowned at the popularity of vaping amongst teens in the US, calling out companies for baiting youngsters into long-term smoking habits. Regulators also told off companies for marketing e-cigarettes and HNBs as healthier options, as tobacco still kills.
Ethical portfolios with negative screens (for example, ones that will not invest in tobacco stocks) have underperformed in the long-term past. There is a growing tribe of funds committed to responsible investing with positive ESG screens. For such funds, we present in this insight a framework for analyzing the sector from an ESG perspective. A deep dive into ITC Ltd (ITC IN), the only cigarette major to turn in a positive performance this year, vindicates, in our view, its efforts to materially de-risk its asset and revenue profile, coupled with very high levels of commitment towards community development.
5. SCMA (SCMA IJ) – Biting the Digital Bullet – On the Ground in J-Town
The conclusion from a recent meeting with the management of Surya Citra Media Pt Tbk (SCMA IJ) in Jakarta was that the company is ready to grasp the nettle of moving a significant focus towards the digital space. That said, it is clear that Free-to-Air business is still very much alive and kicking and will be the core driver for some time to come.
Media Partners Asia suggests that the advertising revenues for the Free-to-Air TV industry in Indonesia can grow +5.6% CAGR between 2017-2023.
Internet companies are driving growth at the margin but also make-up 2/3rds of the 15% of total spend on digital advertising, which suggests only 5% lost from TV.
Surya Citra Media Pt Tbk (SCMA IJ) is on the cusp of a significant move into the digital advertising and content space through Vidio.com, Kapanlagi.com, as well as its payments gateway Dana.
The company will also enter a new advertising medium of outdoor billboards, where it will seek to consolidate the industry through acquisitions, with the aim of controlling 50% of this market.
Surya Citra Media Pt Tbk (SCMA IJ) remains the best media proxy for advertising in Indonesia. It has seen its two main Free-to-Air stations SCTV and Indosiar command number 1 & 2 audience share positions over the last two months, giving an overall prime-time audience share YTD of 35%. The company estimates that the core business can probably achieve growth of +10% over the next two years. The real kicker to growth for the company will come from its significant move into the digital and content space through a series of acquisitions, mainly from its parent Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk (EMTK IJ). These transactions are will be done at arm’s length so as to avoid any corporate governance concerns. According to CapIQ consensus, the company is trading on 16.7x FY19E PER and 15.1x FY20E PER, with forecast EPS growth of 8.6% and 10.6% for FY19E and FY20E respectively. The company also has a dividend yield of 3.9% for FY19E and generates an ROE of 32%.
