Brief Indonesia: Uzbekistan Is a Promising Latecomer, but Investors Need to Watch Out and Stay on Top of Data and more

Last week, Uzbekistan placed a debut Eurobond, which attracted high interest from investors. Following a change of leadership in 2016, the country embarked on a path or rapid development. So far, its reform record has been quite impressive. However, new challenges often arise during periods of rapid transition. We expect both demand and supply-related pressures to lead to a rise in headline inflation towards the 20% mark in the next 12 months. We think that given the evidence of a rapid deterioration in the trade and current accounts in 2018, further depreciation of the local currency should be expected in the short term. Investors who have bought the Eurobond, or consider participation in further placements by Uzbek corporate issuers in the coming months, should watch out for signs of the build-up of persistent imbalances in Uzbekistan’s economy.