Brief Indonesia: Politics, Uncertainty and Bad Policy: The Third Wheels of Profits and the Investment Cycle and more

In this briefing:

1. Politics, Uncertainty and Bad Policy: The Third Wheels of Profits and the Investment Cycle
2. Snippets #19: Marijuana, Mergers, and More

1. Politics, Uncertainty and Bad Policy: The Third Wheels of Profits and the Investment Cycle

Our positive view of the Asian region in 2018 was not reflected in stock market performance. But now is not the time to discard fundamentals and fundamental analysis. Unlike the US, the Asian region is in the early stages of a profit upcycle. As we have argued on many occasions, that is the building block required to kick start the investment cycle. But theoretical explanations of the growth process aside, is there any empirical support for the argument that profits and investment, and therefore growth, are related? We would answer in the affirmative and, in the following report, we try to show how the process works and where Asia stands on two of our Austrian Stress Indicators (ASIs). Market volatility aside, the conditions for good growth gains are firmly in place in most of the region.

2. Snippets #19: Marijuana, Mergers, and More

Five interesting trends/developments that could impact Thai equities in the recent period:

• Legalization of medicinal marijuana. Thailand legalized medicinal use of marijuana at end of February and has already received immense interest from potential growers. At some point, pharma and healthcare companies could be beneficiaries of this trend.
• Rumbles in the airline industry. Asia Aviation (AAV TB) , parent company of Thai Air Asia, acquires a stake in competitor Nok Air. This is one of the few signs of industry consolidation in this sector.
• MOU signed between TMB and Thanachart. The deal may take longer than initially expected, but the two sides have agreed on some basics such as 70% equity financing and deal size of roughly Bt130-140bn.
• Read-through from US Election 2020. Some of the Democrat policies advocated by candidates in 2020 could turn out to be positive for Asian equities.
• BGrimm acquires Glow SPP1 for a bargain price of Bt3.3bn, or 55% of the expected price, opening the way for the GPSC-Glow merger, potentially the largest deal of 2019.