Brief Indonesia: Memory Chips and the Elasticity Myth and more

In this briefing:

1. Memory Chips and the Elasticity Myth
2. Jakarta Trip – On the Ground Insight Feb 2019
3. RRG Global Macro Weekly – Election Volatility Expected in India, Indonesia and Thailand
4. Indonesia Property – In Search of the End of the Rainbow – Part 2 –  Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ)

1. Memory Chips and the Elasticity Myth

During recent earnings calls memory chip makers have postulated that the market will return to higher margins once price elasticity causes demand to increase.  This popular myth needs to be treated with great skepticism since, as this Insight will reveal, short-term price elasticity has a negligible impact upon memory chip sales if it has any impact at all.

2. Jakarta Trip – On the Ground Insight Feb 2019

Airport connectivity in Indonesia has reached a milestone last year when they announced the airport express but has there been any improvements in the service and load factor? The management company, Railink, definitely tries its best to upkeep their service level and increase awareness. Indonesian usage of internet through smartphones also tells about how important smartphones as a center of their daily life. 

Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) has gone creative when it comes to increase their online and offline presence; not only having an app that is comparable to Grab and Uber but also creating a dedicated taxi waiting area in a mall. Is Go-jek only a ride hailing app? My experience on Go-send tells otherwise. 

How about the upcoming Presidential election? What will happen in a rematch between Jokowi vs Prabowo? Does Prabowo really have no economic policy? His answer when asked on what sort of supportive policies to help Unicorns grow shed some light on his understandings and knowledge on economic policy. 

3. RRG Global Macro Weekly – Election Volatility Expected in India, Indonesia and Thailand

• Volatility set to rise as Thailand, Indonesia and India all Face ElectionsRussia: Michael Calvey, a US citizen and one of Russia’s most prominent foreign investors, has been detained.
• Indonesia: Incumbent President and his challenger from the military are trying to outdo each other in spending largesse targeting rural poor ahead of the May election.
• South Africa: Recent inflation readings have been the lowest in a long time on lower fuel expenses. Expected to stay low.

4. Indonesia Property – In Search of the End of the Rainbow – Part 2 –  Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ)

In this series under Smartkarma Originals, CrossASEAN Research insight providers Angus Mackintosh and Jessica Irene seek to determine whether or not we are close to the end of the rainbow and to a period of outperformance for the property sector. Our end conclusions will be based on a series of company visits to the major listed property companies in Indonesia, conversations with local banks, property agents, and other relevant channel checks. 

The second company we explore is leading township developer Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ), with exposure ranging from landed housing, shophouses, condominiums, as well as the defensive and growing buffer of nearly 20% of revenues coming from recurrent rental income.

Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ) has one of the largest land banks of any developer, with a land bank of over 4,000 ha, more than half of which is in its flagship township of BSD City in Serpong.

Given its breadth of exposure to the property segment, the company has the flexibility to switch its exposure between different segments depending on the health of the overall market. 

Its projects are well connected by toll-roads and railway but it is well positioned to benefit from new infrastructure such as the new MRT, LRT, as well as new toll road extensions, which will enhance the attractiveness of its developments.  

Management suggests that they will take a cautious start to the year ahead of the election but see a window for a pick-up in marketing sales in May, with the potential for a much better 2H19. 

Despite a run-up in the share price since the start of the year, valuations do not look challenging from a historical basis especially looking at its PBV. It also trades at a significant discount to NAV of 67%, as well as being below its 5 yr historical mean on a forward PER basis.

Catalysts ahead include a post-election pick-up in activity leading to more project launches, completion of infrastructure projects, aggressive mortgage lending by the banks, and a more dovish interest rate outlook. Valuations are already attractive but a rise in property market activity should also lead to earnings upgrades, which if sustained, may lead to property prices moving upwards.