Brief Indonesia: 2019 Semiconductors: 5%+ Decline and more

In this briefing:

1. 2019 Semiconductors: 5%+ Decline
2. Indonesia Property – In Search of the End of the Rainbow?

1. 2019 Semiconductors: 5%+ Decline

An earlier post outlined the general direction of the Objective Analysis 2019 forecast but didn’t provide any numbers.  In this post I explain the 5%+ decrease in revenues that the market will experience and how and why various elements play into that number.

2. Indonesia Property – In Search of the End of the Rainbow?

The Indonesian property sector has only had a few glittering moments in the sun over the past five years, since the boom times of 2012-2013. The sector continues to trade at near record discounts to NAV despite the back-drop of record-low mortgage rates, rising affordability and high levels of pent-up demand. In this series under Smartkarma Originals, CrossASEAN insight providers AngusMackintosh and Jessica Irene seek to determine whether or not we are close to the end of the rainbow and to a period of outperformance for the sector. Our end conclusions will be based on a series of company visits to the major listed property companies in Indonesia, conversations with local banks, property agents, and other relevant channel checks. 

In this series of Insights we will discuss in depth:

• The drivers to the property sector, including the economic drivers, with a more benign outlook on interest rates, overall supply and demand, correlations to mortgage rates, the currency impact, construction costs, regulation and tax law change over the years and the influx of foreign developers and potential buyers. 
• The profiles of the biggest players in each segment of the property market. We will also map out the details of each company’s location, accessibility, and longevity of their land bank.
• How each development is interconnected and how it benefits from new infrastructure projects, such as the new toll roads or MRT, or LRT projects, and the rise of the T.O.D. (transport orientated development). 
• Each developer’s target segment, whether they are focused on landed township developments, high rise, mixed-use, or industrial developments, and how each segment fared during boom time (2012-2014) or bust (2015-2018).
• How much of each developer’s revenues are coming from recurrent investment property sources such as the office, hotel, or retail properties, and which have the biggest proportion of speculative buyers versus end-users?

Last year saw a pick-up in sales activity for most developers but the question is can this be sustained going forward? With a more benign outlook on interest rates and a less hawkish tack from Bank Indonesia for 2019, the potential for positive regulatory changes to support the property sector, and a potential post-election tailwind from May onwards, there are good reasons to revisit this beaten up sector.