Indonesia: Lippo Karawaci and more

Lippo Karawaci’s FY 2021 results were strong and exceeded expectations, with robust revenue and soaring EBITDA. Moreover, operating cash flows turned positive ahead of management’s guidance (FY 2022 onwards). The financial risk profile has improved significantly, and liquidity is sound.

We expect upward rating pressure to start building in FY 2022, as the company’s business and financial risk profile has improved significantly. Meanwhile, the agencies’ forecasts appear too conservative.

We revise our recommendation to “Buy” from “Hold” on the LPKRIJ 6.75 26. The notes dropped following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and are now trading at 96 and yielding 7.9%. The yields are attractive, given the fast-improving fundamentals and our expectation of robust FY 2022 results.