In today’s briefing:
- A Layman’s Thesis for ITMG
- PT M Cash Integrasi Tbk – New Partnerships Bearing Fruits
- Morning Views Asia: China South City, Country Garden Holdings Co
A Layman’s Thesis for ITMG
- Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) is a 2.3 bn USD company with ~880 mn USD net cash adding >100 mn USD of free cash flow a month.
- At a 103 USD/ton ASP the company made a 475 mn USD profit for 2021. We estimate prices are easily around 200 USD/ton for the company in the current environment.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) has a track record of paying >70% of its profits as dividends since 2009 ( implying a yield of 37% for FY22 ).
PT M Cash Integrasi Tbk – New Partnerships Bearing Fruits
- 1Q22 saw robust performances: Revenue was -7.4% YoY to IDR3,044bn in 1Q22, largely driven by -67% YoY decline in digital products & services (on the flip side, this segment saw 2pp expansion in GPM).
- Streamlining top-line estimates: We revised down our revenue estimates slightly by -0.5%/-2%/-4% to IDR15,044bn/IDR17,198bn/IDR19,135bn in FY22E/23E/24E, due to downward revisions for digital products and cloud advertising segments, offset by upward revisions for SaaS, Clean Energy, and the additional revenue streams from latest partnerships (E-wholesale, Audio Visual, and Content & Entertainment).
- Improving PATMI margins from FY22-24E: Our PATMI margin estimates have mostly remained the same and on upward trends at 0.3%/0.5%/0.7% (prior: 0.3%/0.4%/0.7%) in FY22E/23E/24E, respectively, as MCAS leverages on its dist.
Morning Views Asia: China South City, Country Garden Holdings Co
Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.
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