Daily India: Som Distelleries-Q2FY19 Results Update and more

In this briefing:

1. Som Distelleries-Q2FY19 Results Update
2. Indian Telcos: What Not to Expect in 2019
3. Ten Years On – Asia’s Time Is Coming, Don’t Miss The Boat
4. Screening the Silk Road: Q1-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

1. Som Distelleries-Q2FY19 Results Update

Som Distilleries And Breweries (SDB IN) Q2FY19 results were in line with our expectations. While revenues witnessed a flat growth, PAT declined by 37% YoY in Q2 FY19 primarily due to seasonality impact on the beer volumes and higher depreciation on the new Karnataka plant. We analyze the results.

2. Indian Telcos: What Not to Expect in 2019

Predictions for Indian mobile in 2019 are likely to be as much about what won’t happen as what will! In summary, we do not expect Jio to lift prices and ease pressure on the incumbents. Nor do we expect significant relief from the government towards the private telcos. The environment is likely to remain tough. With this outlook, by the end of 2019, we expect concerns that Vodafone Idea (IDEA IN) will require more capital to resurface. Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) is closer to an inflection point in returns and we are confident that unless prices fall again (which we don’t expect), revenues bottomed for Bharti in 2QFY19. The bottom line is that Bharti can live with current pricing while we don’t believe Vodafone IDEA can.

3. Ten Years On – Asia’s Time Is Coming, Don’t Miss The Boat

We noted in   Ten Years On – Asia Outperforms Advanced Economies Asia’s economies and companies have outperformed advanced country peers in the ten years to 2017.  Growing by 6.8%, real, through the crisis the region is 188% larger in US dollar terms while US dollar per capita incomes 170% higher compared with 2007. In this note we argue even though Asian stock markets have underperformed since 2010 and the bulk of global capital flows have gone to advanced countries, Asia’s time is coming. Valuations are cheap. Growth fundamentals strong. There are few external or internal imbalances. Macroeconomic management has been better than in advanced economies and the scope to ease policy to ward off headwinds in 2019 is greater. China has already started.

4. Screening the Silk Road: Q1-2019 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

• Value made a comeback, but growth remains core: In May 2018, we examined the divide between value and growth stocks, ( Notes from the Silk Road: Small-Mid Cap Screening for Zulu Warriors). As Q3 unfolded, this eventuated with a +7.5% reversal in favour of value stocks, only to see growth resume dominance in October and November.
• The optimal value/growth style dynamic: We feel exposure to growth at a reasonable price (GARP) coupled with a healthy FCF yield (via our amended Zulu Screen) should provide some healthy medium to long term returns for investors.
• The Screen’s Risk: The Zulu Screen relies on analyst estimates. When market sentiment is weak and forecasts are not amended in a timely manner, the screen is susceptible to mis-selection.
• Q2 2018 screening list succumbed to volatile markets: This was seen in our May screen with our list posting on average a 30% decline in share price, relative to the broader Asia-Pacific Ex-Japan declining 13.6% and the Asia Pacific index by 11.8%.
• Are there reasons for the underperformance? 10 of the 19 stocks in the May screen were from Hong Kong, which saw the Hang Seng Index (HIS) decline 16% over the same period. The decrease seems due to concern over trade wars and doubts about the China economy. Our key approach to stock selection is to take a medium-to-long-term view as well as focus on quality ranked stocks relative to their peers. This is highlighted via the average stock rank of the group declining only 15.8% from 89.6 to 75.5 points.
• Our Q1 2019 screen selected only 9 stocks. Of the 9 stocks identified, the average PEG Ratio was 0.4x, the price to FCF yield was 11% and ROCE was 25%. Stocks were selected from Australia, New Zealand, India, Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore. Cowell Fashion Company from Korea was the only remaining stock from our May screening.