In this briefing:
- India Politics: Long Before 2019 Results, Fight Begins for PM Candidate in Opposition = Good for BJP
- Anmol Industries Pre-IPO Quick Take – No Growth, Generous Payments to Founders
- Time-Out Not Time up for Trade War
1. India Politics: Long Before 2019 Results, Fight Begins for PM Candidate in Opposition = Good for BJP
The Opposition parties discussing who will be their Prime Minister after 2019 elections is not just premature, it is also a distraction from their main objective which is to defeat the BJP first in the next Lok Sabha elections. Notwithstanding some recent reversals and visible signs of nervousness in the BJP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is still miles ahead of any other candidate and even BJP is still the dominant force, both in absolute terms and as compared to any other political party in India today. Without any significant threat to his popular appeal and personal charisma, Mr. Modi remains the best bet for leading the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) in the next Lok Sabha elections.
However, this discussion that who should be the PM candidate for Opposition in next elections began when M K Stalin who is a prominent leader from Tamil Nadu and chief of DMK (the party not in power in the state today but clearly one of the two most powerful political forces in this Southern state) proposed Rahul Gandhi (leader of Congress, the other national party apart from BJP) for PM’s job next year. Almost immediately, several other Opposition parties opposed the proposal and said it is best decided after the elections.
There are several reasons why it will work better for BJP if Opposition has a joint candidate for Prime Minister’s post next year, a) It will harm the fragile Opposition unity because there are several contenders but there is no one who will be acceptable to all the Opposition parties, b) If Rahul Gandhi is the PM candidate and his party takes this decision unilaterally, Congress will become less acceptable to other parties. As things stand today, Congress is far away from becoming a strong force in the next Lok Sabha, c) The voters will get more polarized and it will help BJP in winning over even neutral voters who may not have been really happy with BJP.
2. Anmol Industries Pre-IPO Quick Take – No Growth, Generous Payments to Founders
Anmol Industries (ANMOL IN) plans to raise US$100m+ in its India IPO via a sell-down of secondary shares. As per Frost & Sullivan, Anmol is the fourth largest biscuit manufacturer in India, behind the likes of Britannia Industries (BRIT IN), Parle and Sunfeast (owned by ITC Ltd (ITC IN)).
In FY17, the company undertook a restructuring wherein it merged three of its operating entities and demerged its treasury operations. Owing to this one can’t really come up with a clear picture of its past performance.
The picture on the demerger is a lot clearer though, as it led to the founders getting US$38m worth of liquid investments. Furthermore, the founder’s employment arrangements seem to be designed in such a way to let them take 12% of the PATMI each year, with no strings attached and additional 13% of FY17 PATMI as salary.
3. Time-Out Not Time up for Trade War
- Xi and Trump walk away from Buenos Aires with something to sell at home
- But trade negotiations will be dominated by fraught disagreements
- After 90-day negotiations, further delays to tariff escalation are likely
