Daily India: EGM Diaries and more

In this briefing:

1. EGM Diaries
2. Forecasting the Semiconductor Market
3. HCG Q2FY19 Results Update
4. Avanti Feeds- Q2 FY18 Results Update
5. Aarti Industries-Q2FY19 Results Update

1. EGM Diaries

We recently attended the extraordinary general meeting (EGM) of Zydus Wellness (ZYWL IN). The primary agenda for the EGM was to approve the issue of fresh equity and raise debt to finance the acquisition of Kraft Heinz Co (KHC US) ‘s Indian subsidiary Heinz India Private Limited jointly with Cadila Healthcare (CDH IN). This will include the brands Complan (Health Food Drink), Glucon D (Glucose Powder), Nycil (Talcum Power) and Sampriti Ghee. We believe the deal is in sync with management’s vision of developing Pharma oriented consumer brands. However with recent acquisition of Glaxosmithkline Consumer Healthcare (SKB IN) by  Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) the competition in the health food drink market may get intense. Having said that, the largest brand Glucon D will likely continue market leadership along with Everyuth and Nycil which will be a good addition to the Zydus Portfolio. Any attempt for market share gains with Complan and Sampriti ghee will be futile and may come at a cost of margins. Based on preliminary, we expect full effect of the deal to appear on FY 2020 financials. Our preliminary estimates indicate a FY 2021 EPS of 51.68, which with a average PE multiple of 34.56 leads to a price target of INR 1809 per share implying an upside of 35% from latest close price of INR 1342. We will revisit our estimates post Q4 FY19 numbers when a much clearer picture is likely to emerge. 

2. Forecasting the Semiconductor Market

This is the time of year that Objective Analysis releases its semiconductor forecast.  This post is based upon a video posted on the WeSRCH website that explains the Objective Analysis 2019 semiconductor forecast.

Although accurate semiconductor forecasts are straightforward to produce, the consistently-accurate methodology spelled out in this Insight is rarely used.

The forecast predicts that the downturn that the industry is currently entering will be longer than most, with profits eluding chip companies until 2022.

3. HCG Q2FY19 Results Update

Healthcare Global Enterprises (HCG IN) , a leading cancer care hospital network’s (please click here for detailed report) Q2 FY19 results were inline with our expectations. Revenues grew by 16% YoY in Q2 FY19 due to strong growth from the HCG centres , EBITDA grew by only 8% in the same period due to operating losses reported by the new centers that dragged the overall profits.  We analyze the results.

4. Avanti Feeds- Q2 FY18 Results Update

Avanti Feeds (AVNT IN)  Q2 FY19 results were significantly below our expectations. While revenues declined by 14% YoY due to low shrimp cultivation as well as low demand particularly in US , the net profit declined by 68% YoY due to increase in raw material prices in the same period. We analyze the results.

5. Aarti Industries-Q2FY19 Results Update

Aarti Industries (ARTO IN) Q2 FY19 results were beyond our expectations, as the revenues grew by 46% YoY and net profit increased by 57% YoY against our expectation of 15% and 20% YoY growth in sales and PAT. This robust result was due to improving capacity utilization, rupee depreciation and expanding contribution of higher value products.

Based on the recent developments we have revised our estimates wherein we expect sales and PAT CAGR of 18% and 22% from FY18-20e.

We analyze the results.