In this briefing:
- What Next in the Inflation / Deflation Debate and What Does It Mean for Asset Prices?
- Monthly Geopolitical Comment: Markets Are Still Waiting for the Result of US-China Trade Talks
- Polycab India Limited IPO – Probably Near Peak Margins, Improvements Unexplained
- BabyTree(1761.HK) FY18 Results: E-Com Further Hit by ‘integration’ with Alibaba; India Foray Timely
- Embassy Office Parks REIT Trading Update – Lowest Volume Traded for Any Indian Listing Since 2018
1. What Next in the Inflation / Deflation Debate and What Does It Mean for Asset Prices?
Despite some signs of stabilization in China’s factory gauges the primary trend is still weakness and it might be rash for investors to read too much into the recent data given the apparent weakness in the Eurozone and the moderation form a high level of growth in the United States. Quantitative tightening is on hold in the United States but a sharp “U-turn” to easing has not happened yet and is politically embarrassing. As inflation falls real rates are rising. Housing markets are showing signs of price weakness. Investors need to watch for signs of credit quality decay that could be an indicator of the next period of severe financial distress.
2. Monthly Geopolitical Comment: Markets Are Still Waiting for the Result of US-China Trade Talks
The future of the US and China relationship remains the most significant geopolitical and economic issue watched by the markets. While the markets prefer to focus on the positives, the eventual outcome of the talks may yet prove disappointing. Meanwhile, a rift is emerging among EU members who have diverging attitudes to cooperation with China. Authorities in Turkey have again spooked investors with their ham-fisted approach to markets. In Ukraine, comedian Zelensky has won in the first round of the presidential poll. In India, sabre-rattling continues ahead of parliamentary elections despite the de-escalation of tensions with neighbouring Pakistan.
3. Polycab India Limited IPO – Probably Near Peak Margins, Improvements Unexplained
Polycab India (POLY IN) plans to raise around US$190m in its IPO through a mix of selling primary and secondary shares. It is the largest manufacturer of wires and cables in India with a 12% market share, as per CRISIL research. The company also recently entered the consumer electrical segments.
I covered the company background and past financial performance in my previous insight, Polycab India Limited Pre-IPO – Market Leader with Steady Growth but with a Few Unanswered Question.
In this insight, I’ll run the deal through our IPO framework, and comment on valuation and updates since the previous filing.
4. BabyTree(1761.HK) FY18 Results: E-Com Further Hit by ‘integration’ with Alibaba; India Foray Timely
BabyTree (1761.HK)’s reported results for FY2018 continues to be impacted by the ‘shift in e-commerce strategy’ post collaboration with Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US) (also a key investor). China’s leading parenting community platform that went public in November 2018 has announced a revenue decline of 4% during 2H2018; its e-commerce revenues were down 70% as its being ‘integrated’ with Alibaba. This is expected to be completed by 2Q2019. While the details of the collaboration (and revenue share, if any) are not given, Management has stated that Alibaba will manage the back-end e-commerce at a reduced cost and better efficiency while it will ‘manage’ users. Despite the fall in revenues, gross profits were up 18% helped by growth in advertisement revenues which now account for 85% of the total. Advertising as a revenue source has limited long term growth and valuation potential compared to e-commerce. The stock is up 25% since results announcement on March 27th, likely enthused by Net profit for FY2018 at Rmb526.2 mn and EPS of Rmb0.29 (implied current Year P/E of 23x). Key risk will be failure to revive e-commerce revenues post ‘integration’.
BabyTree also announced its first global foray – it has invested USD8mn in Healofy, amongst the top 3 leading parenting apps in India currently. India’s online Parenting app segment has numerous players and revenue generation/growth may not be easy in the near term for Healofy. However, our analysis suggests that India’s overcrowded parenting app segment is now witnessing consolidation and this funding could probably help Healofy solidify its ranking amongst top 3 parenting platforms in India. In this context, BabyTree’s foray into India seems well timed. Healofy could potentially follow BabyTree’s operating model and fit into Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US) ‘s India e-commerce strategy (Refer our earlier report Alibaba’s India Game Plan – More than Meets the Eye; Investor Day Analysis (Part II) ).
In the detailed report that follows, we briefly comment on BabyTree’s reported 2018 results and also present a quick overview of India Parenting App segment – key players, investors and why we think it may be on a consolidation mode.
5. Embassy Office Parks REIT Trading Update – Lowest Volume Traded for Any Indian Listing Since 2018
Embassy Office Parks REIT (EOP IN) raised US$665m in its IPO, making it the first REIT listing for India.
In my previous insights I’ve covered the company background, its projected growth, compared it to its main listed peer and other yield assets in India:
- Embassy Office Parks REIT – Good Assets but Projections Might Be a Tad Too Bullish
- Embassy Office Parks REIT – Comparison with AIT and a Look at the Required Yield, and
- Embassy Office Parks REIT IPO – FY19 Revised Down, Yield Propped up by Zero Coupon Bond
In this insight, I will re-visit some of the deal dynamics, comment on share price drivers and provide a table with implied valuations.
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