In this briefing:
- Havells India
- India Bulls Housing Finance- Can It Become Another HDFC? Signs Are Encouraging!!
- Metropolis Healthcare IPO – Fairly Valued, at Best
- The Dollar IS the Story; Gold Confounds, A Brexit Rabbit Hole; EUR Punished
- Screening the Silk Road: (Small-)Mid Cap Free Cash Flow
1. Havells India
As the summer sets in, we visit distributor and retailers of air conditioners in our home town Vadodara, Gujarat where temperatures soar really high in summer and air conditioning is becoming a necessity. Our checks are focused on Havells India (HAVL IN) and its’ consumer brand Llyod. Our takeaways from visits suggest celebrity endorsements unlikely to work, competition intensifying with the entry of Daikin in the mass premium segment, Ifb Industries (IFBI IN) joins the price war with its ACs, the season is off to a muted start due to prolonged winters. At current price of INR 776, risk-reward offered is not in favour for Havells investors with a medium-term horizon. Using consensus estimates and average 3 year forward PE of 41x, target price works out to be INR 807. Investors will be better off waiting for an attractive entry point.
2. India Bulls Housing Finance- Can It Become Another HDFC? Signs Are Encouraging!!
This is the concluding part of our Housing Finance Companies (HFC) series where we elaborated the outlook of the mortgage industry in India along with initiating coverage on the best HFCs who we believe may continue to be the key beneficiaries of a long term secular growth in the Indian mortgage industry. (please click here, here and here ).
In this report we cover Indiabulls Housing Finance (IHFL IN) , the third largest HFC in the country. The company is among the fastest growing HFCs whose loan portfolio has grown at a CAGR of 29% in the last 5 years ending FY18. And in spite of robust growth, the asset quality has remained steady.
Due to a strong track record of high capital adequacy, high liquidity coverage, high asset quality, improving operational efficiency and high return ratios, the company was recently awarded AAA rating by ICRA and CRISIL, the top 2 credit rating agencies in India.
From the parameters that are analyzed in detail in this report, we believe that the company in the long term has the potential to be in the league of HDFC Ltd., a benchmark in terms of corporate governance, robust asset management and wealth creation for shareholders.
3. Metropolis Healthcare IPO – Fairly Valued, at Best
Metropolis Health Services Limited (MHL IN) (MHL) plans to raise around US$175m in its Indian IPO via a sell down of shares by the promoter and private equity owners. MHL is one of the largest diagnostic chains in the country.
In my previous insight, Metropolis Healthcare Pre-IPO Quick Take – Steady Performance but Growth Lagged Network Expansion, I analyzed MHL’s recent financial performance and compared it with its listed peers, Dr Lal Pathlabs (DLPL IN) and Thyrocare Technologies (THYROCAR IN).
In this insight, I’ll run the deal through our IPO framework and comment on valuation.
4. The Dollar IS the Story; Gold Confounds, A Brexit Rabbit Hole; EUR Punished
- The dollar IS the story
- EUR punished for negative yields
- Chasing Brexit down a rabbit hole
- Gold confounds
- Bitcoin at an interesting juncture
The fact that the dollar has strengthened despite the dovish turn at the Fed this year and the significant fall in US rates and bond yields has confounded many analysts.
5. Screening the Silk Road: (Small-)Mid Cap Free Cash Flow
In April 2018, we published a FCF screen with the sole aim of identifying potential names which could prove to be strong candidates in a Small-Mid Cap portfolio. We move to update this list with a strong bias to the mid-cap stocks appearing.
This screen performs well with markets where the value style is in favour. Given the market appears to be trending back to this style, we believe the Small-Mid Cap universe should capitalise on this over the next 12-months. We identify within the screen some high trading liquidity deep value candidates across the Asia Pacific universe.
Our updated 2019 list of names contains 17 stocks, with a more diversified spread of countries and sectors, compared to April 2018. A point to note is that basic material stocks have strengthened within the composition. Interestingly, the style of stock which has increased its presence amongst the list is the contrarian style, highlighting an opening up in value.
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