Brief India: Global EM Special: Andean Condors Vs Asian Elephants – Where Is the Growth in EM? and more

In this briefing:

1. Global EM Special: Andean Condors Vs Asian Elephants – Where Is the Growth in EM?
2. WABCO Confirms Being a Takeover Target of The Private German Auto Parts Maker, ZF

1. Global EM Special: Andean Condors Vs Asian Elephants – Where Is the Growth in EM?

Global growth is expected to slow over the coming quarters, possibly years – and emerging market economies are certainly not immune from this. Nevertheless, within this diverse universe, the pace of deceleration will be uneven. Whilst some “open” EM economies are generally synchronized with growth dynamics in the rest of the world, others will be shielded by a combination of idiosyncratic forces – including renewed accommodative (monetary and fiscal) policies, cyclical recovery or upswing in domestic growth drivers and – for some – positive political developments and reform progress. Still, other EMs are less fortunate and a growth deceleration is likely to deepen in the near-term – held back by less policy flexibility, political uncertainty and various domestic or external shocks.

With 4Q18 GDP growth reports underway, we sifted through – and synthesized – various growth indicators to introduce a “Growth-Profile Framework” (GPF) to systematically evaluate – and rank – growth profiles in a data-driven, automated and standardized manner. The “GPF” not only takes into account GDP for the most recently-reported four quarters but also forward-looking forecasts and the latest economist revisions, which often take into account the latest data surprises and other material developments.

The observation universe is the “Emerging Markets-25” (EM-25) of large, investable EM countries most often found in benchmark indices such as MSCI EM and JPMorgan (GBI-EM and EMBI) indices. This opportunity set offers a breadth of diversity spanning across Asia, EMEA and LatAm and different stages of development. 

Highlights: 

• Introducing the “EM-25” Growth Profile Framework: This data-driven, automated and standardized model generates a ranking of the “EM-25” economies based on a composite of factors reflecting: 1/ The most recent GDP growth data (in relation to three look-back periods), 2/ Forward-looking consensus growth forecasts (in relation to the most recent four quarters of GDP) and 3/ Upgrades and downgrades to those forecasts.
• Andean condors soar while Asian elephants amble along: LatAm – specifically the Andean economies (plus Brazil) – currently stand out as having the most attractive growth profiles among the EM-25. They are helped by a combination of – largely idiosyncratic – factors ranging from newfound reform optimism (Brazil), improving domestic confidence (Colombia), pent-up domestic demand (Peru) and stabilizing appetite for key commodities (Chile). This contrasts with export-oriented Asian manufacturers that dominate the bottom rankings. Elsewhere, the legacy of past macroeconomic policy choices – both painfully orthodox (Argentina) and otherwise (Turkey, Venezuela, Pakistan) – are taking their unique toll on certain other economies.
• Does growth matter for investment strategy? Yes…: Simplistically speaking, economies with exemplary growth profiles are viable candidates for long or overweight positions in equity markets and external debt. Strong growth is often associated with stronger corporate earnings potential as well as lower debt-to-GDP levels, respectively. Growth implications for FX and local debt are more ambiguous, but to the extent that a robust growth outlook guides central banks to tighten policy or lifts the government’s fiscal revenues over time, then this may also be positive for currencies and rates, respectively.

• …But it’s complicated: However, strong growth can detract asset performance if it is the result of unsustainable policies (e.g. overly loose fiscal or monetary actions) or if it leads to overheating conditions (e.g. runaway inflation or a wider current account deficit). An attractive growth profile, as with all data sets, needs to be judged against its context. Although high and improving growth is an end-goal for many policymakers, the road to strong – and sustainable – growth is far more important for its longevity (and for risk assets over the medium-term). For instance: Are growth prospects improving due to rising productivity (as it might from structural reform)? Or rather from overly-stimulative policies that risk fanning inflation or widening the current account deficit? To what extent do officials have the policy flexibility to stoke growth, smoothen downside growth risks or stave off a recession? We touch upon these questions in the individual country sections below.

• While the narrative is almost always more important than the number itself, this GPF framework nevertheless offers a valuable screening tool that systematically evaluates growth profiles – on a stand-alone and relative basis – across the “EM-25” universe.

2. WABCO Confirms Being a Takeover Target of The Private German Auto Parts Maker, ZF

Last morning the listed brake supplier, Wabco Holdings (WBC US) confirmed that it is in takeover talks with one of the leading auto parts suppliers in Germany, ZF Friedrichshafen AG. Following the news of being possibly bought by a private company, WABCO’s stock surged almost 10% during the day, reaching USD130.5 by the day’s close.  This positive market reaction for WABCO was purely based on its confirmation about having preliminary takeover discussions with its rival company, ZF. There were no further details released on the possible deal price or about the plans that either company has after the takeover. Further, ZF in a news report stated that no decision has been taken yet and that it was the preliminary discussions that were being done. However, we do note the following:

• ZF is known to have made such strategic acquisitions in aiding the long-term development of the company. A similar strategic move was made by ZF back in 2015, when it took over TRW Automotive Holding to expand its exposure to sensors and electronic components.
• In June last year, ZF stated in a news report that it is not prioritising interest in brake suppliers, as its focus is to pursue investments in developing components to support next generation technologies and reported its plan to further invest more than EUR12bn into e-mobility and the autonomous driving field. This could indicate that WABCO takeover discussions may involve reasonable price discipline from ZF, and we would note that ZF had previously desired to acquire Wabco for about €6-8bn. However, we believe that the buyout does look attractive for both companies, especially for ZF, given the possible synergistic effects that could support ZF’s next gen technologies.
• In the last go around, ZF had just completed its acquisition of TRW and the balance sheet made a further large acquisition difficult. Now, much of the additional debt from the TRW has been digested and although levering up again could place considerable financial pressure on ZF in the short term, the company’s history makes up believe that it has the capability to handle any such pressure once synergies kick-in and restore its balance sheet in short order.