In this briefing:
- FRETAIL IN
- Fast Fashion in Asia: Trendy Clothing’s Toxic Trails – Investors Beware
- Oil Exploration: We Expect a Resurgence in 2019 Pointing to Strong Performance for E&Ps
1. FRETAIL IN
We visit the large format stores of Future Retail (FRETAIL IN) fbb, Big Bazaar and Big Bazaar Gen Next, along with visiting stores run by Future Lifestyle Fashions (FLFL IN) Brand Factory and Central in Ahmedabad, Gujarat to understand some of the drivers behind SSSG of over 10% over the last 15 consecutive quarters. Our regional checks indicate the large format growth might be maintained in the future driven by loyalty programs like Future Pay. Interestingly the group has resorted to using its stores to mobilise funds for its fixed deposits, which could be a final indication that the planned of deal with Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) is finally being called off.
2. Fast Fashion in Asia: Trendy Clothing’s Toxic Trails – Investors Beware
Fashion industry is a leading polluter of water, air and land and its rapid growth has inflicted serious environmental damage in manufacturing bases across Asia. With increased consumer awareness and public scrutiny, leading brands globally have committed to adopt sustainable practices. This can mean a rise in operating costs, margin pressures which can lead to higher prices and/or lower volumes. What does that mean for corporate earnings growth and stock valuations? Our report attempts to arrive at some ballpark estimations based on a scenario analysis. Leading branded apparel companies can suffer market value destruction ranging up to 30% if their long term margins and growth assumptions are reset at lower levels following a shake-up of their existing low cost model. And, those who refuse to adapt and adopt sustainable processes could soon be shunned by ESG-led investors and environmentally mindful consumers alike, leading to valuation discounts. Investors Beware.
Over the past decades, corporate growth and profitability agenda overshadowed environmental considerations, and apparel brands have grown in an environmentally unsustainable manner. Beneath the façade of glitzy fashion magazines lies the dirty underbelly of pesticide use, water mismanagement, irresponsible effluent discharge, chemical poisoning, greenhouse gas emissions, energy overuse, micro-plastic pollution and landfill dumping. Until recently, the notion that apparel retailers should be responsible and accountable for the environmental infringements in their highly fragmented but globalised supply chain was an unwelcome idea. Under pressure from consumers and activists, this is now changing. With ESG-led investing going mainstream, investors too may start to take notice.
The detailed report below includes:
- Summary and conclusions from the study on Fast Fashion’s environmental footprint in Asia and impact of rise in consumer awareness on global apparel companies
- Understanding Fast fashion
- Fast Fashion trends in Asia – Survey findings on consumer attitudes to shopping and environmental issues
- Environmental issues in Asia due to Fast fashion
- Sustainable clothing – an emerging trend, and what can turn it mainstream
Investing in Fast fashion: between a rock and a hard place – a Valuation vulnerability analysis
Sustainability & 13 leading fast Fashion players – how future ready are they?
This report was prepared jointly by the team at Investory – Devi Subhakesan , Rohinee Sharma and Shilpa Krishnan. Investory commissioned an exclusive survey for this report to understand young urban Asian consumers’ attitude towards fast fashion and their understanding of environmental issues.
3. Oil Exploration: We Expect a Resurgence in 2019 Pointing to Strong Performance for E&Ps
We see oil exploration making a comeback in 2019, as drilling spending sees an increase and on the back of encouraging well results year to date. Already in 2019 there have been 4 high impact discoveries in the UK, South Africa and Guyana. Given the need of companies, especially the majors, to replenish their portfolios, there will still be a number of frontier, high impact wells being drilled. The areas where we see material exploration wells being drilled this year are Guyana, US GoM, Mexico, Brazil the Eastern Mediterranean and West Africa.
If there is some exploration success, the pure-play exploration companies will be good performers, especially those that have exposure to several wells that could be material relative to their size. A pick up in drilling will also be positive for the offshore drilling companies and seismic names. We look at the merits and pitfalls of investing in exploration, performance in 2018, outlook for 2019, the debate over exploring for resource versus buying it, how the economics of exploration have improved and the impact of the time value of money.
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