In this briefing:
- Bull Or Bear? Latest Global Liquidity Readings
- ECM Weekly (30 March 2019) – ESR, Yunji, Ruhnn, Jinxin Fertility, Metropolis Health, Viva Biotech
- Risk of Future LNG Supply Glut as Bubble of New Projects Grows
- Metropolis IPO: Priced to Leave Limited Upside
- Havells India
1. Bull Or Bear? Latest Global Liquidity Readings
- Global Liquidity bottoming out, but Central Banks not yet easing
- US Fed only withdrew $30bn in Q1, versus $350 bn in Q4
- PBoC still tightening through OMOs
- ECB on ‘pause’
- QE4 is coming in 2019, but no evidence it has started yet
2. ECM Weekly (30 March 2019) – ESR, Yunji, Ruhnn, Jinxin Fertility, Metropolis Health, Viva Biotech
Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by Smartkarma Insight Providers recently, along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK)‘s debut in Hong Kong this week was spectacular. It closed almost 60% above its IPO price on the first day. In Ke Yan, CFA, FRM‘s trading update note, he pointed out that valuation is trading close to fair value and that the near term driver will be the progress of the NMPA review and commercialization of MCV2. On the other hand, Koolearn (1797 HK)‘s IPO was not as fortunate. The company got listed on the same day but struggled to hold onto its IPO price even though it was oversubscribed.
For upcoming IPOs, Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) will finally be listing next week on the 3rd of April after re-launching its IPO at a much lower fixed price of HK$3.06 per share. Sun Car Insurance(1879 HK), however, pulled its IPO even though reports mentioned that books were covered. We are also hearing that Shenwan Hongyuan Hk (218 HK) will be pre-marketing its IPO next week while CIMC Vehicle will be seeking approval soon.
India’s IPO market is starting to warm up after long lull period as Metropolis Health Services Limited (MHL IN) and Polycab India (POLY IN) are launching their IPOs next week. Sumeet Singh had already shared his thoughts on valuation for Metropolis Healthcare and his early thoughts on Polycab in:
- Metropolis Healthcare IPO – Fairly Valued, at Best
- Polycab India Limited Pre-IPO – Market Leader with Steady Growth but with a Few Unanswered Question
Meanwhile, in the U.S, Ruhnn Holding Ltd (RUHN US) launched its IPO to raise about US$125m and we heard that books have already been covered. Lyft Inc (LYFT US)‘s strong debut even after it priced above its original IPO price range should bode well would likely mean that there will be more tech unicorns looking to list in the coming few months.
In Malaysia, we also heard that Leong Hup International (LEHUP MK) will be pre-marketing next week while in Indonesia, Map Actif will open its books for US$200 – 400m IPO next week as well.
Accuracy Rate:
Our overall accuracy rate is 72.4% for IPOs and 63.9% for Placements
(Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)
New IPO filings
- Haitong UniTrust International Leasing (Hong Kong, re-filed)
Below is a snippet of our IPO tool showing upcoming events for the next week. The IPO tool is designed to provide readers with timely information on all IPO related events (Book open/closing, listing, initiation, lock-up expiry, etc) for all the deals that we have worked on. You can access the tool here or through the tools menu.
News on Upcoming IPOs
- As IPO flood recedes, Asia bankers bet on follow-on capital raising
- Bitmain forced to delay Hong Kong IPO amid crypto-mining decline
This week Analysis on Upcoming IPO
- Viva Biotech (维亚生物) IPO: Warning Signs from 2018 Numbers (Part 2)
- Metropolis Healthcare IPO – Fairly Valued, at Best
- Jinxin Fertility (锦欣生殖) Pre-IPO: Strong Foothold in Sichuan but Weak Sentiment for Sector
- Ruhnn (如涵) Pre-IPO Review- Significant Concentration Risk
- Yunji (云集) Pre-IPO Review – Poor Disclosure on Data
- ESR Cayman Pre-IPO- First Stab at Valuation
- Leong Hup Pre-IPO – Hard to Pinpoint What’s Going to Be the Revenue Driver Going Forward
- Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) IPO Review – Relaunched at Lower Price
- SNK Corp (950180 KS)
3. Risk of Future LNG Supply Glut as Bubble of New Projects Grows
The rapidly improving outlook in the LNG industry over the last few years, reinforced towards the end of 2017 by the unexpected growth of demand from China, has set off a proliferation of new LNG projects especially from the US (Exhibit 1).
In its latest LNG Outlook report, Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA LN) is projecting from 2023 onwards a significant gap between the future LNG demand and the existing supply including the capacity under construction that could require up to 100mtpa of new LNG project sanctions by 2023.
The race to gain market share in the projected LNG demand-supply gap has produced an aggregated capacity of proposed new projects of up to 475mtpa, a number larger than the total LNG traded volume in 2018 of 319mtpa and way above the capacity required to meet the future growth in LNG demand.
Exhibit 1: Funnel of proposed LNG projects getting bigger
4. Metropolis IPO: Priced to Leave Limited Upside
We like Metropolis Health Services Limited (MHL IN) ’ track record of growing revenue/patient despite competition, premium pricing and strong margin defence. Margins have however, come under some pressure in 9MFY19. Its patient growth lags that of Dr Lal Pathlabs (DLPL IN)’s despite rapid network expansion. It is also at the highest risk from any government instituted pricing cap on pathology tests owing to (1) high share of institutional business and (2) premium pricing. Also, 51.6% of promoter stake will be pledged with lenders after the IPO. At the upper end of its price band, Metropolis is valued at 20.9x FY20F EV/EBITDA and 33.3x FY20F PE- at ~15% discount to Dr Lal. We see EPS compounding at 12% Cagr over FY18-21, lower than the 16% EPS Cagr of Dr Lal’s. We feel valuation leaves limited upside.
5. Havells India
As the summer sets in, we visit distributor and retailers of air conditioners in our home town Vadodara, Gujarat where temperatures soar really high in summer and air conditioning is becoming a necessity. Our checks are focused on Havells India (HAVL IN) and its’ consumer brand Llyod. Our takeaways from visits suggest celebrity endorsements unlikely to work, competition intensifying with the entry of Daikin in the mass premium segment, Ifb Industries (IFBI IN) joins the price war with its ACs, the season is off to a muted start due to prolonged winters. At current price of INR 776, risk-reward offered is not in favour for Havells investors with a medium-term horizon. Using consensus estimates and average 3 year forward PE of 41x, target price works out to be INR 807. Investors will be better off waiting for an attractive entry point.
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