India: NIFTY Index, ABM Investama, Oil & Natural Gas Corp and more

• Nifty RSI and price breakout sets the tone for a test on the 18,500 high zone with dip support at 17,700/500. RSI was the early rally signal.
• The early bull trigger came when the Nifty bank index crossed 36,900/37k pivot resistance signal a fresh long entry for the banks and the Nifty.
• Previous highs are the hurdles to challenge and clear for bull traction. India long can be paired with weaker market (Korea and Taiwan).

This month, we undertake a study of movements in the Lucror Analytics Risk Assessment (LARA) for issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index over the last five years.

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors’ understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

• Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL) have outperformed the Sensex by 74/42% over the last twelve months, as Brent crude price increased by 68%; we expect the outperformance to continue
• The Domestic Administered Pricing Mechanism (APM) gas price was revised upwards by 110% to USD 6.1/mmbtu in H1FY23; we expect it to further rise by 45% to >USD 8.8/mmbtu in H2FY23
• We expect Brent crude price, which is currently at >USD 100/bbl, to remain elevated, as Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) supply growth is likely to lag global demand growth and supply concerns surrounding geopolitical issues would prevail.

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