India: Adani Wilmar, Symphony Ltd, Vodafone Idea , Gland Pharma Ltd, HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd, Ramco Cements, SBI Cards & Payment Services, Supreme Industries and more

• Adani Wilmar (6596700Z IN) is looking to raise up to US$482m in its upcoming India IPO.
• In our view, we doubt that the firm would be able to trade close to its blue chip FMCG peers, given its small FMCG component combined with overall weaker margins.
• In this note, we will look at updates since our last note, undertake a peer comparison, and share our thoughts on valuation.

• We interact with Channels of Symphony Ltd (SYML IN) , Sheela Foam Ltd (SFL IN) , Relaxo Footwears (RLXF IN) to understand the demand environment and competitive positioning.
• Symphony Ltd (SYML IN) channels are reporting some market share loss, Sheela Foam Ltd (SFL IN) ‘s operating and competitive positioning is encouraging. 
• For Relaxo Footwears (RLXF IN) , school reopening could be possible upside catalysts. 

•  Vodafone Idea (VIL) is India’s third largest telecom operator with ~24.7 crore wireless customers in India
• Given the balance sheet stress and delayed 4G network expansion, it lags the key listed peers in terms of 4G network coverage, ARPU and margins
• While recent government relief measures ensure survival of VIL, staying competitive will be function of how quickly it raises funds

• Loan growth accelerates; asset quality remains robust. AXSB delivered a strong operational performance, with net profit up 224% YoY
• Growth steady across business segments; asset quality strengthens further
• PAT grew 224% YoY and 15% QoQ to INR36.14b in 3QFY22, aided by steady revenue growth and controlled provisions

• Gland Pharma reported a good set of numbers with revenue for the Q3FY22 growing by 23.7% on a YoY basis
• The strong growth was majorly driven by robust performance in the emerging markets as well as the India market while core markets reported an encouraging 10.5% growth
• We, therefore, recommend a HOLD rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 3,575/share.

• HDFC AMC is among the largest and profitable mutual funds with an AUM of ~| 4.4 lakh crore as on December 2021
• Strong distribution network with 227 branches and over 70,000 empanelled distribution partners
• Target Price and Valuation: Given concerns on declining market share, we value HDFC AMC at ~29x FY24E EPS and revise our target price from Rs 3000 to Rs 2550

Lower realization/higher costs led to 9%/6% drop in FY23E/FY24E EBITDA, which along with higher debt assumptions resulted in 20%/14% decline in profit estimates, respectively. Though, TRCL’s near-term outlook looks challenging due to higher fuel costs (INR570/t increase in 3QFY22 variable cost v/s FY21 average), we expect the company to benefit from commissioning of new capacities. The stock trades at 15.9x/12.9x FY23E/24E EV/EBITDA and USD165/t capacity.

• Ramco Cements is the dominant player in South India with cement capacity of 19.4 MT spread across Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal
• In terms of sales, South contributes ~71% of sales while East contribute 24%, which is served via grinding units in WB (2 MT) and AP (2 MT
• Target Price and Valuation: We value Ramco at Rs 1,130 i.e.17x FY23E EV/EBITDA

Q3FY22 performance of SBI Cards (SBIC) was directionally strong in terms of
gross account additions (1mn), spending growth (46% QoQ) and asset quality
(credit cost/GNPA of 9.0%/2.4% vs 9.3%/3.4% in Q2FY22). The activation rates
(30-day) are also high at 52% in Q3FY22 vs 50% in Q2FY22. Maintain buy with share price target of Rs. 1060

• Supreme Industries (SIL) is India’s leading plastic processing company with a presence in four major segments
• Market leader in the PVC pipe industry with a value market share of 14%
• Target Price and Valuation: We roll over our valuation on FY24E and value the stock at 28x P/E FY24E EPS with a revised target price of Rs 2625.