In today’s briefing:
- Asia HY Monthly – Indonesian Bankruptcy Regime Revisited – Lucror Analytics
- Prestige Estates Projects – Blackstone Deal Conclusion Should Boost Liquidity and Reduce Debt
- Nifty Sub 17k Barrier Short Zone
- United Spirits – Robust Operating Performance; Strategic Review a Positive for Medium-Term
- Berger Paints India Ltd – Disappointing Quarter; Management Not Unduly Worried by New Competition
- Jubilant FoodWorks – Operating Performance In-Line; Mr. Khetarpal Comes in as CEO & MD from Amazon
- Fine Organic Industries – Blockbuster Quarter!
- La Opala RG – Tracking Expectations; Demand Outlook Is Positive
- Morning Views Asia: Bharat Petroleum Corp, Central China Securities, Tata Motors ADR
- Restaurant Brands Asia – Slight Miss; Guidance Upped for India Business
Asia HY Monthly – Indonesian Bankruptcy Regime Revisited – Lucror Analytics
This month, we provide an update on developments related to the Indonesian bankruptcy regime since November 2017.
The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors’ understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.
Prestige Estates Projects – Blackstone Deal Conclusion Should Boost Liquidity and Reduce Debt
- We maintain our Buy rating on PEPL with a revised target price (TP) of Rs514 (earlier Rs 617) based on the FY24E NAV.
- We have increased cap rate from 7.5% to 8.5% given the increase in interest rate.
- Also, we have increased inflation rate of cost component from 5% to 5.5% given the increase in input costs.
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Nifty Sub 17k Barrier Short Zone
- India is a market (like Taiwan) that faces a shakeout into summer turbulence after holding the top end of the range since late 2021 albeit amid a drifting decline.
- Nifty met the gap resistance to test the short side with a higher conviction sell zone closer to that 17k of support (now pivotal resistance).
- USD/INR bull triangle maturing and did not blink during the USD pullback in Asia. 76.50/70 buy support if we do get a dip.
United Spirits – Robust Operating Performance; Strategic Review a Positive for Medium-Term
- 4QFY22 headline performance: Standalone net sales grew by 9.5% YoY to Rs24.4bn (v/s est. Rs25bn).
- FY22 performance: Revenue and EBITDA grew by 18.9% (led by ~12% volume growth) and >50%, respectively.
- Other highlights: (1) ENA and Glass are ~2/3rd of the company’s raw material basket and both the commodities are under inflationary pressure, witnessing inflation in double digits. (2) Recently received price increases from Assam, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. (3) UNSP maintained its guidance to deliver mid to high teen operating margin.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.
Berger Paints India Ltd – Disappointing Quarter; Management Not Unduly Worried by New Competition
- 4QFY22 consolidated headline performance: Revenue grew by 8% YoY to Rs21.9bn (vs our est. of Rs25.1bn). Consolidated gross margin was down by 480bps YoY at 38.9% (+220bps QoQ; vs our est. of 40.1%).
- Standalone 4QFY22 Revenue, EBITDA and APAT grew by 7.3%, 3.8% and 1.6% YoY, respectively.
- International & subsidiary business performance: Polish subsidiary Bolix S.A had a robust topline growth, aided by improved sales in the UK and France.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.
Jubilant FoodWorks – Operating Performance In-Line; Mr. Khetarpal Comes in as CEO & MD from Amazon
- 4QFY22 headline performance: Standalone topline was up 12.9% YoY at Rs11.6bn, in-line with our estimate of Rs11.4bn.
- Store additions in 4QFY22: The company again created a new all-time record with the opening of 80 new Domino’s stores, taking the network strength to 1,567 stores as of 31st March’22.
- FY22 standalone performance: Revenue, EBITDA and APAT grew by 32.5%, 44.1% and 89.6% YoY, respectively.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.
Fine Organic Industries – Blockbuster Quarter!
- Financial performance: Revenue grew 33/91% QoQ/YoY to INR 6.2bn in Q4 on the back of higher realisations, courtesy full pass-through of input cost price hikes, on boarding of new customers, repeat orders, better product mix, foreign exchange gains, and inability of competitors to supply their products, owing to non-availability of raw materials.
- Con call highlights: (1) Currently, all plants are running at their optimum capacities.
- Change in estimates: We raise our FY23/24 EPS estimates by 30.4/24.9% to INR 112.5/124.3, to factor in higher realisations and better margins, owing to a better product mix, new customers, and capacity ramp-up.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.
La Opala RG – Tracking Expectations; Demand Outlook Is Positive
- 4QFY22 performance: LOG’s 4QFY22 revenue at Rs896mn (up 12% YoY) came in line with our estimate.
- Revenue was well ahead of pre-Covid level. The management indicated that growth was equally strong across channels.
- EBITDA margin witnessed 520bps QoQ moderation despite strong gross margin, mainly on account of higher other expenses (4Q other expenses are always high on account of director commissions and channel partners incentives etc.)
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Morning Views Asia: Bharat Petroleum Corp, Central China Securities, Tata Motors ADR
Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.
Restaurant Brands Asia – Slight Miss; Guidance Upped for India Business
- 4QFY22 standalone topline grew by 37% YoY to Rs2.7bn (vs est. Rs2.8bn).
- 4QFY22 consolidated topline grew by 24.4% YoY to Rs4bn. Gross margin expanded by 100bps YoY to 63.6% (down 30bps QoQ).
- FY22 performance: Standalone revenue and EBITDA grew by 90.9% YoY and 175.7% YoY, respectively.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.
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