In this briefing:
- S&P 500 Revisiting 2,600 Support
- Celltrion / Celltrion Healthcare Pair Trade: Ratio Should Move in Favor of Healthcare
- Wuxi Apptec (药明康德) IPO: What You Need to Know Before the Trading Debut
- Sonic Healthcare Placement – Accretive Acquisition, Placement Discount Should Help
1. S&P 500 Revisiting 2,600 Support
The S&P 500 was not able to break through the 2,817 and 100-day moving average resistance levels last week, and has now fallen abruptly back to test 2,600 support. For now our outlook remains cautious and we continue to expect heightened volatility and horizontal consolidation between the aforementioned support and resistance levels. Absent any real clarity in regards to Fed policy or U.S.-China trade relations, the S&P 500 is vulnerable to a breakdown. We highlight opportunities within Pharmaceuticals and Waste Services, two areas of the market with defensive characteristics that currently exhibit timely technicals.
2. Celltrion / Celltrion Healthcare Pair Trade: Ratio Should Move in Favor of Healthcare
- I initiated a pair trade (short Celltrion / long Healthcare) on Oct 22. Yield peaked at 16.66% on Nov 22. It now stays at 8.75%.
- The ongoing FSS investigation is hammering both. Healthcare is hurting a bit more because it is more directly exposed. The market is overreacting to it. Given what has happened to Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS), it is very unlikely that this will be a serious risk.
- I’d hold onto this position longer to regain a mid-teen yield. Current ratio is slightly above 20D MA, but still below yearly median.
- Healthcare’s KOSPI move is still lurking. Temasek’s Healthcare selling was done lately. Celltrion merger is also rising to the surface. We have more factors pushing up the ratio in favor of Healthcare.
3. Wuxi Apptec (药明康德) IPO: What You Need to Know Before the Trading Debut
Wuxi Apptec’s USD 1 billion IPO was priced at HKD 68/share and will start trading today. We summarize the latest information with updates on our valuation in this short note, prior to the trading debut.
Our previous coverage on Wuxi Apptec listing
- WuXi Apptec (药明康德) IPO: This A+H Listing Will Be Different
- WuXi Apptec (药明康德) IPO:Upside at Middle and Low End
- Wuxi Apptec (药明康德) IPO: Pricing Update Before Book Close
4. Sonic Healthcare Placement – Accretive Acquisition, Placement Discount Should Help
Sonic Healthcare (SHL AU) plans to raise US$434m (A$600m) via an institutional placement to part fund its US$540m acquisition of Aurora Diagnostic.
As per the company, the acquisition is likely to be earnings accretive and will increase the revenue contribution of US operations to around 26%. While the deal appears attractive, SHL hasn’t provided many details about the past financial performance for Aurora. Some of the earlier filings by Aurora seem to indicate that revenue has been growing much faster than EBITDA.
