In this briefing:
- Healthscope (HSO AU): A Material Bump to Brookfield’s Offer Is Doubtful
- India Generic Drugs: Antitrust Suit Could Cost Billions
- Celltrion/Celltrion H Pair: Last 2 Days Must Be Price Divergence, Not Mean Reversion
1. Healthscope (HSO AU): A Material Bump to Brookfield’s Offer Is Doubtful
Healthscope Ltd (HSO AU), Australia’s second-largest private hospital operator, is caught again in a bidding war between Brookfield Asset Management (BAM US) and BGH-AustralianSuper. On 21 December 2018, Healthscope extended exclusive due diligence with Brookfield. Brookfield noted that it has “no reason to believe it would not be willing and able to proceed” with its proposal.
The popular narrative is that should a binding proposal materialise; shareholders can expect a bidding war among the existing bidders, and potential new bidders as Healthscope is “in play”. While there is there is a possibility for some ‘‘sweetening’’ to the bid price, we think that that the formal “winning” bid is unlikely to be materially above the current Brookfield bid.
2. India Generic Drugs: Antitrust Suit Could Cost Billions
This Insight builds on our previous Insight, India Generic Drugs: US Antitrust Inquiry Widens by discussing estimated potential liabilities and details contained in court filings. Public comments by one of the plaintiffs (47 states) suggest the defendants’ aggregate liability could exceed US$6 billion, the largest previous settlement on record. There is not enough information to apportion potential liability by company, but some companies are better-positioned to bear the cost of a settlement than others. The process could drag on for an undetermined period of time (which helps the defendants). At the same time, the overhang will keep a lid on generic drug prices in the US market.
Among Indian generic companies, Dr. Reddy’S Laboratories (DRRD IN), Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP IN),Cadila Healthcare (CDH IN), and Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (GNP IN) have the highest risk based on their market caps and exposure to the US market.
3. Celltrion/Celltrion H Pair: Last 2 Days Must Be Price Divergence, Not Mean Reversion
- The accounting fraud issue had hammered the Celltrion duo nearly equally up until Dec 26. But last two days were different. Healthcare got hurt much more deeply. Celltrion fell only 2.41%, but Healthcare fell 11.52%.
- The accounting issue is supposed to be equal to both. KOSPI move and merger are still alive to push up Healthcare. Local institutions and foreigners have bashed both pretty much equally in the last two days. This is another sign that it was more of a price divergence than a mean reversion.
- The duo is now at 20D MA and also the yearly mean. I expect it to go substantially below the yearly mean on KOSPI move and merger expectations. A powerful downwardly mean adjusting force still seems to be in action. I’d long Healthcare and short Celltrion to exploit the latest price divergence.
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