Brief Healthcare: India Generic Drugs: “Antitrust Unredacted” and more

In this briefing:

1. India Generic Drugs: “Antitrust Unredacted”
2. Versum Materials – Merck KGaA Not Going Away (Part II)
3. Bristol Myers Squib & Celgene–Starboard Objections Addressed Today- Successful Deal Closure Probable
4. Sea Ltd (SE US): The Bear Case – A One-Hit Wonder?
5. Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect – $8.4 Bn Inflows in February (Kweichow Moutai, Aier Eye, Luxshare)

1. India Generic Drugs: “Antitrust Unredacted”

New information in the government’s investigation into antitrust violations by generic drug companies continues to surface. An unredacted version of the Attorneys General complaint was published recently by a health care trade publication. The unredacted portions of the document paint an incriminating picture of the industry, increasing the pressure to settle. The timetable for the process remains open-ended, and manufacturers will be reluctant to raise prices absent documentable product shortages. Among the Indian companies, Sun Pharmaceutical Indus (SUNP IN), Dr. Reddy’S Laboratories (DRRD IN), and Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP IN) feature prominently in the court filings.

2. Versum Materials – Merck KGaA Not Going Away (Part II)

Since my initial report on Versum Materials (VSM US)  last week, Versum Materials – Entegris Beaten to the Punch by Merck KGaA , I’ve dug deeper and feel even more confident that Merck KGaA (MRK GR) is intent on seeing its proposal to acquire Versum to a successful conclusion, with or without a recommendation from the Versum board.

In this follow-up note I provide an update of events since last week, look at VSM’s corporate governance documents, review relevant landmark Delaware takeover case law, and elaborate on a possible path to control of Versum for Merck KGaA.

3. Bristol Myers Squib & Celgene–Starboard Objections Addressed Today- Successful Deal Closure Probable

The proposed Bristol Myers Squibb Co (BMY US) & Celgene Corp (CELG US) transaction announced in the first week of 2019, garnered many sceptical comments. Starboard Value jumped in the fray by writing a letter denouncing the transaction while one of the largest holders of BMY, Wellington Management Group, holding about 7.7% of the stock expressed a desire to vote against the transaction. BMY’s response to Starboard’s half-baked objections is credible, and in our view, increases the likelihood of a successful closure manifold. We are bullish on the transaction.

4. Sea Ltd (SE US): The Bear Case – A One-Hit Wonder?

Despite burning through $700mn in cash in 2018, investors decided to give another $1.3bn to Sea Ltd (SE US) . We believe investors should treat Sea Ltd with caution for the following reasons:

A significant slowdown in e-commerce

Is the gaming division a one-hit wonder?

Expecting another 800mn cash burn into 2019

Consensus has priced in further upgrades while cash flow metrics worst in the sector

NB. Our team has taken both sides of the Sea Ltd investment case as we think this makes for better decision making and encourages unique thinking within our team. We strongly recommend that investors read my colleague Arun’s positive notes on the company listed below, if you have not already done so.

Sea Ltd (SE US): Placing Price Leaves Money on the Table

Sea Ltd (SE US): Placement a Good Opportunity to Enter an Attractive Story

5. Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect – $8.4 Bn Inflows in February (Kweichow Moutai, Aier Eye, Luxshare)

In our Discover SZ/SH Connect series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of northbound trades via the Shanghai Connect and Shenzhen Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine. We will discuss the stocks that experienced the most inflow and outflow by offshore investors in the past seven days.

We split the stocks eligible for the northbound trade into three groups: those with a market capitalization of above USD 5 billion, and those with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion.

We note that offshore investors were buying all GICS sectors, and had a strong preference for Industrials, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials names. We estimate that total inflow into the A-share market via northbound trade amounted to USD 8.4 bn in February.