In today’s briefing:
- Remegen (9995HK) Vs Keymed Biosciences (2162HK)-Deep Dive the Logic & Internationalization Prospects
- Biocon- Management Meet Update
- Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories – Management Meet Update
- Indoco Remedies- Management Meet Update
- J B Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals – Management Meet Update
Remegen (9995HK) Vs Keymed Biosciences (2162HK)-Deep Dive the Logic & Internationalization Prospects
- Commercialization prospects of domestic autoimmune disease market is highly uncertain. Related drugs’ sales could be very limited in short term. Overseas market space is much larger, so internationalization is inevitable.
- Our forecast on RemeGen’s total sales is just RMB3.5-4 billion. The deal with Seagen still puzzles us, which is the key to determine how far RemeGen can go in internationalization.
- Keymed is like “a younger RemeGen” due to the differentiation strategy of pipeline layout. However, Keymed’s internationalization progress is much weaker, with higher risks and uncertainties than RemeGen.
Biocon- Management Meet Update
- Biosimilar Business: If all goes well, the closure of Viatris transaction (acquisition of its biosimilar portfolio) may happen as early as 2HFY23.
- The acquired business would have a topline of US$800mn and EBITDA of US$175mn.
- Biocon will be able to build on the Viatris acquisition as it has multiple launches lined up in the biosimilar space and the same should help it to build on the base.
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Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories – Management Meet Update
- Russia Business: DRL’s business was strong in 4QFY22, partially due to overstocking, which should normalize in 1QFY23.
- India Branded Prescription Business: DRL is aiming to keep improving its ranking in the IPM.
- Novartis brands’ acquisition: The acquired brands will be promoted with a mix of existing field force and addition of new salesforce.
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Indoco Remedies- Management Meet Update
- Domestic Business: The domestic business growth should be driven by new launches, price increase (6%) and volume growth.
- US Business: Indoco’s solid oral dosage portfolio has not seen much price erosion.
- Inflationary pressures are easing, but still not fully normalised: The company acts as a contract manufacturer for several of its products in Europe and it has been able to pass on the cost increases in these products.
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J B Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals – Management Meet Update
- CMO Business: JB Chemicals is the largest lozenges manufacturer in India with a capacity of 150cr units.
- Reiteration of FY23 guidance: Expected future revenue growth in mid-teens and EBITDA margin expansion to 24-26%. R&D expense as a % of sales should not exceed 3%.
- Domestic Market Reach: The company reaches out to a doctor base of 3,00,000 and a sales force of ~2,500 MRs with a large presence in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities/towns, which make up ~40% of domestic sales.
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