In this briefing:
- Krung Thai Bank: Not as Cheap as It Looks
- StubWorld: Wharf Under Pressure As Cooling Measures Bite
- DoubleDragon Properties (DD PM): From Overhyped to Undervalued; Multi-Bagger in the Making?
- Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) IPO Review – Better off Buying the Parent
- Snippets #20: Dark Clouds in Thai Equities
1. Krung Thai Bank: Not as Cheap as It Looks
Originally, Krung Thai Bank Pub (KTB TB) struck us as interesting. A solid PH Score™, reasonable franchise valuation and P/Book, and a low RSI.
However, further due-diligence shows a somewhat stagnant and eroding operation.
- Headline profitability improvement is unrelated to efficiency or to operational advances.
- Cost growth is fast outpacing a declining top-line.
- Interest income has actually fallen for each of the last 3 years.
- The bank is being squeezed on margin despite keeping interest expenses unchanged.
- Non-interest expenses soared by 26% YoY.
- The bottom line (and profitability) was flattered by varied low quality items as well as much lower loan loss provisions, but still remained well above comprehensive income.
- Asset Quality is also concerning (despite lower loan loss provisions) given the sharp rise in loss (especially) and substandard loans as well as the amount of Special Mention Loans on the Balance Sheet. This means provisioning of problem loans may not be sufficient.
- Liquidity: Deposits are also declining, pushing up the LDR.
2. StubWorld: Wharf Under Pressure As Cooling Measures Bite
This week in StubWorld …
- Wheelock & (20 HK) is coming up “expensive”, but it’s Wharf Holdings (4 HK) which is under-performing after PRC property sales targets are lowered amid Beijing’s cooling measures.
Preceding my comments on Wheelock and other stubs are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold – the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent – of at least 20%.
3. DoubleDragon Properties (DD PM): From Overhyped to Undervalued; Multi-Bagger in the Making?
This Insight was written by Nicolas Van Broekhoven and Lloyd Moffatt.
What is an Orphan Stock?
An attractively valued company with a minimum market cap of USD $1 billion but no sell-side coverage.Doubledragon Properties (DD PM) meets those criteria.
Why Read This Report?
Learn about the Philippines youngest self-made billionaire*, Edgar ‘Injap’ Sia, how he created one of the largest fast-food chains (Mang Inasal) in the country and successfully sold it to Jollibee Foods (JFC PM) for over USD$100 M.
After selling Mang Inasal in 2010, Sia started building DoubleDragon (DD) as he joined hands with Tony Tan (founder of Jollibee Foods (JFC PM) ). DD was listed in 2014 at a market value of USD$85 M (PHP2/share) and reached a market cap of over USD$3 B USD two years after listing (PHP70/share).
DD’s valuation mid-2016 was overhyped and overvalued.
From mid-2016 to late 2018 the share price fell by approximately 75%. Last year the stock bottomed at PHP17.2 despite fundamentals improving drastically between 2016 and 2018.
This has created a unique opportunity to invest in a diversified property company whose main earnings contributor will come from building neighborhood malls in suburban communities outside Metro Manila. It is forecast that 90% of its revenues would be recurring in nature by FY20.
We value DD on a blended a) P/E multiple and b) Cap Rate basis.
DD recently traded around PHP 22/share and is currently valued at 9.5x FY20 P/E, a steep discount to its industry peers. Assuming the company achieves PHP10.8 B in recurring revenues by FY20 the market is currently valuing the company at a 21% Cap Rate vs 7% for its primary peer Sm Prime Holdings (SMPH PM). DD should trade at a discount to SM (long track record, higher liquidity, included in PSE index) but the gap is too wide.
We argue DD should trade at a) 15x P/E and b) 10% cap rate. Combining the two valuation methods we arrive at a blended Fair Value of PHP 40.31/share, or 83% upside from current levels.
Assumptions | Fair Value |
15x 2020 P/E | PHP 35 |
10% Cap Rate | PHP 45.63 |
BLENDED FAIR VALUE | 40.31 PHP |
The founders control 70% of the company and expect to grow the current USD$1.2B market cap exponentially the coming 3-5 years. DoubleDragon is a potential multi-bagger in the making.
Catalysts to unlock value at DoubleDragon would be:
- FY18 results publication by early April 2019
- Delivery of 100 operating CityMalls by FY20
- The passing of workable REIT law
- Delivery of PHP5.5B FY20 profit target
- FCF inflection point coming closer in FY20
- Re-discovery by sell-side firms as index inclusion looms
- Visibility into FY21-FY25 dividend potential
Footnote: *Injap was reported as having USD$1 B in assets by Forbes in 2017, as the share price of DD has fallen we estimate this has dropped to approximately USD$ 400-500 M, which would still rank him among the top-25 wealthiest individuals in the Philippines.
4. Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) IPO Review – Better off Buying the Parent
Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK) is raising up to US$428m in its upcoming IPO. We have covered the background of the company in Dongzheng Auto Finance (东正汽车金融) Pre-IPO Review – Dependent on Dealership Network for Growth.
In this insight, we will look into the company’s valuation, compare it to listed auto peers, and run the deal through our framework.
5. Snippets #20: Dark Clouds in Thai Equities
Of the five interesting trends/events/developments we heard this month, we highlighted five and how they could impact Thai equities in the near term:
- Thai Raksa Chart Party dissolution. The dissolution of the TRC, the second largest Thaksinite party, poses some political risks but could affect sentiments for companies founded by Thaksin, such as Intuch and AIS.
- Thai Air Asia says no to Nok Air. After the briefest considerations, the larger airline came to the conclusion that they wouldn’t acquire a stake in struggling Nok Air.
- Capital Gains Taxes are currently under consideration by the government for the first time. If implemented, they are likely to have negative impact on overall equities but the brokers in particular.
- From LINE to BEC. LINE (Thailand)’s Country Manager Ariya Phanomyong has agreed to move to BEC. Though mildly positive, we believe improvements will revolve around distribution rather than the more key issue of content.
- True Move’s Request for 5G delay may sound odd at first glance, but we see it as a rational, if not very tactful, way of delaying a new round of capex.
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