In this briefing:
- Takeda: Move Over Newton! Now It’s Spooky Action At a Distance
- Hitachi (6501 JP): A Bold but Risky Acquisition of ABB’s Power Grids
- Discovery Management Will Likely Soon Be Helping Narrow the Share Class Spread
- Satellite Companies Securing Agreements to Sell C-Band Spectrum
- Discover HK Connect: Mainlanders Are Buying Shandong Gold, and Pharmaceuticals (2018-12-17)
1. Takeda: Move Over Newton! Now It’s Spooky Action At a Distance
Over the weekend I published Softbank Corp, Takeda, and Newton’s Three Laws of Motion. Newton’s Three Laws helpfully guide one to understanding the nature of interaction of forces and bodies and the motion which results. Later, Euler’s laws of motion applied a framework for rigid and continuum bodies, and since then “action at a distance” has been replaced be Einstein’s Theory of General Relativity.
After I wrote the bit about one part of the index impact, FTSE unhelpfully changed their mind on timing based on an unhelpful change by the LSE. On Monday, the TSE exercised its discretion – clearly stated in the TOPIX Index Guidebook on p4 (2nd sentence of the opening paragraph) as something it may do – to go its own course in how it will adapt index changes to the first couple of increases in share count due to mergers with foreign corporations.
If an event not specified in this document occurs, or if TSE determines that it is difficult to use the methods described in this document, TSE may use an alternative method of index calculation as it deems appropriate.
So with the changes at FTSE and now TOPIX and JPX Nikkei 400, we no longer have quite the same clarity of forces on the bodies, and therefore less clarity on the resulting motion. The LSE’s announced market change appears to have led the MSCI to change its deletion date for Shire as well, now also (along with FTSE) deleting Shire at the close of the 21st (announcement early this AM Asia time).
Investors have prepared based on the idea that there was a reasonably tight relationship – helped because it was a lot of force applied in a short period (selling and buying all done in a short period in January) between the particles. Now that relationship is being stretched. A lot.
The problem resembles that which Einstein famously pooh-poohed as “Spooky Action At a Distance”. Schrödinger called this entanglement – and it turns out to be one of the weirder branches of quantum mechanics – a field broken wide open by Bell’s Theorem a decade after Einstein shuffled off this mortal coil* – and about which John Wheeler famously said, “If you are not completely confused by quantum mechanics, you do not understand it.”
I cheerfully say quantum mechanics completely baffles me.
I less cheerfully say this whole episode with Takeda and index providers has baffled me too.
But it is important to note that the timing and implications are vastly different than expected just two trading days ago. And the difference is worth thinking about. When the FTSE/MSCI net sell of risk was just 3 days apart, there was a clear connection across that three day distance. Now, the 6-10 week spread of time between the FTSE/MSCI events, the weird two weeks of SETSqx illiquid purgatory just as everyone is full up of risk, then the walk through the Valley of the Shadow of Flowback before we get the first really good net index inclusion to cover the Shire risk people have been dumping for months means that the certainty of understanding the movement of the particle on the other side is substantially lower.
If it all works out well, it might just be Spooky Action At a Distance.
2. Hitachi (6501 JP): A Bold but Risky Acquisition of ABB’s Power Grids
Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) announced the acquisition of an 80.1% stake in ABB Ltd (ABBN VX)’s power grids business for $6.4 billion. ABB will retain the remaining stake in the divested unit, which is valued at an EV of $11 billion. ABB’s power grids is a global #1 player and makes transformers, long distance electricity-transmission systems and energy storage units.
Setting aside the huge cultural and integration challenges, we believe that Hitachi’s acquisition of ABB’s power grids is a bold but a risky move.
3. Discovery Management Will Likely Soon Be Helping Narrow the Share Class Spread
As share class trades go, Discovery has presented several opportunities over the years to take advantage of index changes, corporate events, and a management that has aggressively repurchased nonvoting DISCK shares versus voting DISCA shares.
4. Satellite Companies Securing Agreements to Sell C-Band Spectrum
Satellite companies attempting to convince the Federal Communications Commission to allow them to sell C-band spectrum they license from the U.S. have begun talks to secure customers, sources told CTFN.
5. Discover HK Connect: Mainlanders Are Buying Shandong Gold, and Pharmaceuticals (2018-12-17)
In our Discover HK Connect series, we aim to help our investors understand the flow of southbound trades via the Hong Kong Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine. We will discuss the stocks that experienced the most inflow and outflow by mainlanders in the past seven days.
We split the stocks eligible for the Hong Kong Connect trade into three groups: those with a market capitalization of above USD 5 billion, those with a market capitalization between USD 1 billion and USD 5 billion, and those with a market capitalization between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion.
