Daily Event-Driven: Celltrion/Celltrion H Pair: Last 2 Days Must Be Price Divergence, Not Mean Reversion and more

In this briefing:

1. Celltrion/Celltrion H Pair: Last 2 Days Must Be Price Divergence, Not Mean Reversion
2. Halla Holdings Stub Trade: Downwardly Mean Reversion in Favor of Mando
3. Harbin Electric: The Price Is Not Right

1. Celltrion/Celltrion H Pair: Last 2 Days Must Be Price Divergence, Not Mean Reversion

• The accounting fraud issue had hammered the Celltrion duo nearly equally up until Dec 26. But last two days were different. Healthcare got hurt much more deeply. Celltrion fell only 2.41%, but Healthcare fell 11.52%.
• The accounting issue is supposed to be equal to both. KOSPI move and merger are still alive to push up Healthcare. Local institutions and foreigners have bashed both pretty much equally in the last two days. This is another sign that it was more of a price divergence than a mean reversion.
• The duo is now at 20D MA and also the yearly mean. I expect it to go substantially below the yearly mean on KOSPI move and merger expectations. A powerful downwardly mean adjusting force still seems to be in action. I’d long Healthcare and short Celltrion to exploit the latest price divergence.

2. Halla Holdings Stub Trade: Downwardly Mean Reversion in Favor of Mando

• Halla Holdings is falling nearly 5% today. Holdco said it’d give a ₩2,000 div per share. This is about 4.5% div yield at yesterday’s closing price. 5% drop today shouldn’t be much as an ex-dividend date price drop. Mando fell 5%. Mando was oversold relative to the other local auto stocks, particularly to Halla Holdings. They are still close to +1 σ on a 20D MA.
• Mando-Hella Elec has been another reason behind Holdco’s valuation divergence against Mando lately. I believe Mando-Hella is being overhyped. Mando-Hella-caused divergence should no longer be effective. I expect ‘downwardly’ mean reversion from now on. I’d go short Holdco and long Mando at this point.

3. Harbin Electric: The Price Is Not Right

As speculated in Harbin Electric Expected To Be Privatised, Harbin Electric Co Ltd H (1133 HK) has now announced a privatisation Offer from parent and 60.41%-shareholder Harbin Electric Corporation (“HEC”) by way of a merger by absorption. 

The Offer price of $4.56/share, an 82.4% premium to last close, has been declared final. The price corresponds to the subscription of 329mn domestic shares (~47.16% of the existing issued domestic shares and ~24.02% of the existing total issued shares) @$4.56/share by HEC in January this year. 

Of greater significance, the Offer price is a 37% discount to HE’s net cash of $7.27/share as at 30 June 2018. Should the privatisation be successful, this Offer will cost HEC ~HK$3.08bn, following which it can pocket the remaining net cash of $9.3bn PLUS the power generation equipment manufacturer business thrown in for free.

On pricing, “fair” to me would be something like the distribution of net cash to zero then taking over the company on a PER with respect to peers. That is not happening. It will be difficult to see how independent directors can justify recommending an Offer to shareholders at any price which gave cash less cavalier than cash.

Dissension rights are available, however, what constitutes a “fair price” under those rights, and the timing of the settlement under such rights, are not evident. 

As all PRC approvals have been obtained, this transaction may complete earlier than prior mergers by absorption, which have taken 6-8 months from the initial announcement.