Daily Event-Driven: Celgene and Bristol-Myers Squibb – Undervalued and Underappreciated and more

In this briefing:

1. Celgene and Bristol-Myers Squibb – Undervalued and Underappreciated
2. Hankook Tire Worldwide Stub Trade: Another Quick Mean Reversion The Other Way Around

1. Celgene and Bristol-Myers Squibb – Undervalued and Underappreciated

A dismal 2018 for the pharmaceutical and bio-tech stocks seems far in the rear view mirror. 2019 began with a bang with two blockbuster deals in the pharmaceutical space within days. In this note, we discuss Bristol Myers Squibb’s Co (BMY US) acquisition of Celgene Corp (CELG US) and  outline our view that investors should go long BMY.

2. Hankook Tire Worldwide Stub Trade: Another Quick Mean Reversion The Other Way Around

• Hankook Tire Worldwide (000240 KS) is again in an interesting position. Its sub, Hankook Tire (161390 KS), is up 2.2% today, putting the duo at -2.2σ. Sub had lost nearly 10% on Jan 2~10 mainly on weakening outlook. Sub has then fully recovered this 10% loss this week. This is putting Holdco at a severely undervalued position on a 20D MA. Holdco discount is now at 41% to NAV.
• I initiated a reverse stub trade on this duo on Jan 8. It started at a 0.44953 price ratio. We are now at 0.38882. We would have enjoyed 15% tasteful yield if we had held onto this position up to this day. We have no apparent signal of improving fundamentals on Sub. It appears that Sub’s recent gain should be the work of bargain hunters. Holdco discount is at the local peer average. Price ratio is at yearly mean.
• Importantly, this is the first time that price ratio is hitting below -2σ since late September last year. We should expect another quick mean reversion at this level. Just, this time it will be the other way. I’d go long Holdco and go short Sub now.