Brief Event-Driven: POSCO Chemtech: Merger, Renaming, KOSPI Move & Joining KOSPI 200 and more

In this briefing:

1. POSCO Chemtech: Merger, Renaming, KOSPI Move & Joining KOSPI 200
2. Nexon Controlling Stake Sale: Names Included in Short List
3. Rakuten (4755 JP): Lyft IPO’s Big Lift Unlikely to Lead to a Sustained Re-Rating
4. Hopewell Holdings (54 HK): A Reasonable but Not Great Exit for Shareholders
5. HDC Holdco Trade: Holdco Re-Rating Should Be Transferred to Sub, Time to Long Sub/Short Holdco

1. POSCO Chemtech: Merger, Renaming, KOSPI Move & Joining KOSPI 200

• POSCO Chemtech (003670 KS) is to merge with one of the affiliated companies, POSCO ESM through stock swap at a ratio of 1 to 0.2172865. It will change its corporate name from POSCO Chemtech to POSCO Chemical. It is also planning KOSPI move.
• KOSPI 200 inclusion is a done deal. Just, timing is in question. New passive money flowing into POSCO Chemtech is estimated at ₩68bil. This represents 1.69% of MC and 4.82% of float MC. This is less than twice total daily trade value.
• If KOSPI 200 inclusion happens for this annual rebalancing cycle, it will be June. If not, we will have to wait another year. This explains current ‘dull’ price movement. I’d keep an eye on this event. ₩68bil passive money would still become a price shaker.

2. Nexon Controlling Stake Sale: Names Included in Short List

• Korea’s local news house Hankyung reported the names that should be included in the short list. They are Kakao, MBK Partners (with NetMarble), Tencent, Bain Capital and another foreign PE whose name isn’t disclosed. Apparently, Amazon, Comcast and EA, didn’t make the short list. Those in the short list now get a chance to do due diligence. They will then participate in the main bidding round that is scheduled for early April.
• It is being reported that only Kakao and NetMarble (with MBK Partners) are truly interested in taking over Nexon’s management right. Tencent is expected to join either Kakao or NetMarble-led consortium in the end. Bain is looking into possible investment opportunities that may be created if this sale leads to a mandatory tender offer to Nexon minority shareholders. It seems safe to say that this comes down to a two-horse race: either Kakao or NetMarble.

3. Rakuten (4755 JP): Lyft IPO’s Big Lift Unlikely to Lead to a Sustained Re-Rating

Lyft Inc (0812823D US) has kicked off its IPO by posting its S-1 filing last Friday. Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) is Lyft’s single largest shareholder with a 13.05% stake. Rakuten has invested around $700 million to acquire its current Lyft stake and stands to make 3-4 times its investment if Lyft achieves its rumoured IPO valuation range of $20-25 billion.

4. Hopewell Holdings (54 HK): A Reasonable but Not Great Exit for Shareholders

Hopewell Holdings (54 HK), an infrastructure and property developer, is subject to a privatisation proposal from its Chairman, Sir Gordon Wu. The privatisation price of HK$38.80 cash per share is a 46.7% premium over the closing price on 30 November 2018, the day before the announcement of the privatisation proposal.

5. HDC Holdco Trade: Holdco Re-Rating Should Be Transferred to Sub, Time to Long Sub/Short Holdco

• HDC Holdco and its major Sub HDC-OP are now at 247% of σ on a 20D MA for the first time since mid Nov last year. On a 120D, their current price ratio is substantially higher than the mean. Holdco discount is now 40% to NAV. This is nearly a 10%p drop since early Jan.
• My previous stub trade on the HDC duo again paid off very nicely. I went long Holdco and short Sub on Jan 11. This trade is now delivering a 15% return. During this period, Holdco climbed 23%. Sub went up 8%. They created a 15%p gap in price performance. Holdco’s 23% running was mainly attributable to re-rating of some of its major unlisted holdings.
• Sub also has several key assets that could equally be re-rated. Much of Holdco’s assets that have presumably undergone re-ratings lately are business wise closely correlated with Sub. A 15%p price yield gap should be too harsh on Sub. I expect their price ratio will be challenged downwardly at this level on a short term time horizon.
• I’d close my previous position. I’d initiate a new trade. I’d go long Sub and short Holdco. I’d close this trade at < 50% of σ. Given the fluctuation level of this duo, this’d give nearly a 8% yield.