In today’s briefing:
- Razer’s Offer Risk/Reward Ahead of the 26 April Scheme Meeting
- Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, STI, FTSE China 50, Ramsay Health Care
- Guodian Tech’s Offer Risk/Reward – Pre-Condition Satisfied
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Didi Global, Ramsay Health, Keppel Corp, Melco, Toshiba, Twitter
- Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Ramsay Health, Dongzheng Auto, Cleanaway, Hitachi Transport, DGO Gold
Razer’s Offer Risk/Reward Ahead of the 26 April Scheme Meeting
- The amended Cayman Islands Act is yet to become law which increases the odds that the headcount test remains for Razer Inc (1337 HK)‘s court meeting on 26 April.
- Since the despatch of the scheme document, the gross spread has narrowed to 7.6% (last close). Current deal probability implies an 80% chance of success.
- The rising deal probability negatively skews the risk/reward profile. We are hesitant to be long this trade into a scheme meeting that is too close to call.
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: MSCI, STI, FTSE China 50, Ramsay Health Care
- The review period for the price cutoff of the MSCI May SAIR commenced last week and will run through the coming week. MSCI normally chooses a day from week 1.
- Yangzijiang Financial Holding Ltd (YZJFH) will list on 28 April and one stock will be deleted from the FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX) at the close on 4 May.
- There were inflows to China and Taiwan focused ETFs, while there were outflows from Korea focused ETFs.
Guodian Tech’s Offer Risk/Reward – Pre-Condition Satisfied
- Guodian Technology & Environment Group (1296 HK)’s privatisation offer from China Energy is HK$1.08 per H share. The pre-condition was fulfilled on 22 April.
- The key conditions for the delisting will be approval by at least 75% of independent H-shareholders (<10% of all independent H-shareholders rejection). There is no minimum acceptance condition.
- At last close and for a mid-June effective date (composite document despatched by 29 April), the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 2.9% and 19.9%, respectively.
Last Week in Event SPACE: Didi Global, Ramsay Health, Keppel Corp, Melco, Toshiba, Twitter
- DiDi Global (DIDI US) had serious data problems. It still listed itself, against the wishes of the regulators. Then it got in serious hot water. And it’s been getting hotter.
- Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) announced an unsolicited, non-binding Offer from KKR (and HISTA), at A$88.00/share, a 36.7% premium to last close, however, earnings have been left bedridden by the pandemic.
- Post-Deal, Keppel Corp (KEP SP) will look more like Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP). More engineering, less power generation infra assets, more other infra assets and more data centres.
Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Ramsay Health, Dongzheng Auto, Cleanaway, Hitachi Transport, DGO Gold
- There are 36 – mostly firm – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- Two new deals this week: KKR’s possible tilt for Ramsay Health (RHC AU); Dongzheng Automotive (2718 HK)‘s possible MGO. Possible Offers for Cleanaway (CWY AU)and Hitachi Transport (9086 JP).
- Key updates took place for: Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)‘s all-scrip off-market Offer for DGO Gold Ltd (DGO AU).
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
