In today’s briefing:
- Takeda Strengthens Rare Disease Portfolio Through Tie-Ups with Gene Therapy Developers
- Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading (ULTJ IJ) – Back on the Boil
- Miniso to Increase Liquidity Via a Dual Primary Listing on HKEX
- Medlive Technology (2192.HK) – The Logic Has Shaken
- ADVANC: 1Q22 Earnings Should Be the Lowest of the Year
Takeda Strengthens Rare Disease Portfolio Through Tie-Ups with Gene Therapy Developers
- Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) has been aggressively expanding its rare disease portfolio following recent hiccups in its development pipeline through Tie-Ups with different gene therapy developers.
- Rare diseases biz is the second largest business segment for Takeda generating about 17.1% of total revenues for the company.
- Takeda’s share price started plunging after suspending a phase 2 study of TAK-994 in October 2021 and price started moving up since January and we think there is further upside.
Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading (ULTJ IJ) – Back on the Boil
- Indonesia’s leading UHT milk and carton tea producer Ultrajaya Milk Industry booked a strong set of FY2021 results, with a convincing recovery in 4Q2021, which should carry through into FY2022.
- The company continues to increase raw milk sourcing locally, which will alleviate rising global prices, and it is expanding its distribution network and new products to drive demand.
- Ultrajaya is a market leader in its main product categories, yet trades at half the valuation of recently listed Cisarua Mountain Dairy, which looks excessive with potential upside to valuation.
Miniso to Increase Liquidity Via a Dual Primary Listing on HKEX
- Last week, MINISO Group Holdings (MNSO US) filed an application to conduct a follow-on public offering of ordinary shares on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
- The Hong Kong listing will be treated as a second primary listing, resulting in a substantial improvement in the stock’s liquidity.
- With the improvement in liquidity following the Hong Kong offer, there could be a significant upside to Miniso shares in the short term.
Medlive Technology (2192.HK) – The Logic Has Shaken
- The revenue YoY growth, net profit YoY growth and net profit margin reached a new low in 2021. The performance of Medlive cannot meet the market’s expectations of high growth.
- The medical knowledge solutions is the cornerstone business and vital to the attractiveness of platform for users. However, this business is not strong enough to make the outlook certain.
- In the fierce competition, more efforts are needed on how to convert physician resources into business value continuously. Due to unreliable logic, we are conservative about Medlive at current stage.
ADVANC: 1Q22 Earnings Should Be the Lowest of the Year
- We maintain our BUY rating with a new DCF-derived TP of Bt259 (-4% from previous TP) representing 23.8xPE’22. We adjusted down overly optimistic forecast on non-mobile enterprise segment. Nevertheless
- We expect 1Q22E net profit at Bt6.9bn (+4% YoY, flat QoQ). Limited QoQ growth is due to prolonged price wars and weaker foot traffic caused by the Omicron outbreak.
- We expect CCIID and 5G ARPU uplift will drive earnings growth at 9%CAGR between 2021-24E.
Related tickers: Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502.T), Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading (ULTJ.JK), Advanced Info Service (ADVANC.BK)
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