Brief Energy: Xinyi Solar Placement – Past Deals Have Done Well, Improvement in Sentiment Should Help and more

In this briefing:

1. Xinyi Solar Placement – Past Deals Have Done Well, Improvement in Sentiment Should Help
2. Korea M&A Spotlight: POSCO or SK to Acquire KCFT for About 1 Trillion Won?
3. Weekly Oil Views: OPEC Shrugs off Trump’s “Take It Easy” Tweet, but Crude Complies
4. SGP: Ready for New Growth Cycle
5. China Risun (中国旭阳) IPO Quick Note: Past the Peak of Coking Cycle

1. Xinyi Solar Placement – Past Deals Have Done Well, Improvement in Sentiment Should Help

Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK) is looking to raise about US$170m in its top-up placement with an upsize option of 225m shares.

The deal scored well on our framework owing to its good track record, strong earnings and price momentum. The company’s 2H 2018 result had marginally beaten estimates while the news of China potentially reversing its effort to reduce solar subsidy has helped improve the overall sentiment of Xinyi Solar. On top of that, the past deals have generally done well.

2. Korea M&A Spotlight: POSCO or SK to Acquire KCFT for About 1 Trillion Won?

It was reported in numerous local Korean media yesterday that POSCO (005490 KS) and SK Group are leading contenders to acquire a Korean company called KCFT (KCF Technology) for about 1 trillion won. KCFT specializes in making copper foil and thin film products, especially for the lithium ion batteries sector. KCFT’s major customers include Samsung SDI, LG Chem, NEC, and Panasonic. 

The KKR private equity firm is the seller of KCFT. In February 2018, KKR acquired a 100% stake of LS Mtron’s copper foil and thin film business for 300 billion won and after this acquisition, renamed it KCFT. It has been reported that should these groups (POSCO or SK) low bid for KCFT, KKR may opt for an IPO of KCFT instead. 

If POSCO is able to acquire KCFT, this should help to accelerate the POSCO Group’s expansion of the rechargeable battery related materials business and enhance its vertical integration of this business. If the deal gets completed at about 1 trillion won, this would represent a P/S of about 3.3x and P/E of about 25x, using 2018 figures. 

3. Weekly Oil Views: OPEC Shrugs off Trump’s “Take It Easy” Tweet, but Crude Complies

As stock-market watchers begin to pick “resistance levels” for benchmark equity indexes that have been steadily heading north amid optimism over a US-China trade deal, we wonder if Trump and his tweets are the barrier point for crude’s rally.

And if they are, what might the US president’s “pain threshold” be? For his latest shot across OPEC’s bow, it appeared to be Brent touching a three-month high just above $67/barrel.

OPEC shrugged off Trump’s gentle warning. Saudi Energy Minister and de facto leader of the oil exporters’ group, Khalid al-Falih, appeared smiling and relaxed when asked about Trump’s tweet in a CNBC interview. OPEC was indeed “taking it easy,” he said. The group and its non-OPEC collaborators were determined to rebalance the markets, but with a “very slow and measured approach,” Al-Falih said.

We believe OPEC will be careful not to over-tighten the market this time around. Perhaps Trump was being over-cautious. If a US-China trade deal is signed in the next few weeks (that may happen on March 27, The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday), global stock markets could rally further. But they will not take crude along for the entire ride.

Our Chart of the Week shows that the rebound of the past two months in global equities has already left crude’s recovery far behind. The divergence should not come as a surprise. Crude may have already priced in most of the economic impetus of a US-China trade rapprochement. Unlike the MSCI global stock market index, which is closing in on its early-October levels (before the start of the financial markets turmoil), crude is highly unlikely to get within sight of the four-year highs it touched on October 3, shortly before it hit the skids.

4. SGP: Ready for New Growth Cycle

We initiate coverage of SGP with a BUY rating and a 2019E target price of Bt14.00, derived from 10.9x PE’19E, which is +0.5 SD of its 3-year trading average. We believe that a new growth cycle is poised to act as a re-rating catalyst.

The story:

• Regional LPG player with upstream transportation network
• New businesses to drive new growth cycle
• LPG price set to bottom out
• Expected earnings to recover in 2019E

Risks: 

             Currency  fluctuation

             Raw material price fluctuation

             Overseas investment failure

5. China Risun (中国旭阳) IPO Quick Note: Past the Peak of Coking Cycle

China Risun, a leading coking coal refining player in China, is seeking up to USD 243 million via a listing in Hong Kong. In this insight, we will discuss the following topics:

• Company’s business and the value chain of coking coal
• Industry backdrop of the coking coal processing industry in China
• Shareholders and investors
• Thoughts on valuation