In today’s briefing:
- Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 24: US$1.1bn Index Inflow for Engie if Nokia’s Rank Falls by ONE
- Brookfield to Launch Mandatory Offer for Neoen
- TLNE: Electrifying Tender, PT to $145
Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 24: US$1.1bn Index Inflow for Engie if Nokia’s Rank Falls by ONE
- The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked and followed indices in Europe and the annual index review takes place in September every year.
- This annual index rebal event usually results in some of the most significant index flow events in Europe every year, typically amounting to billions of dollars of flows.
- In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2024.
Brookfield to Launch Mandatory Offer for Neoen
- Brookfield (BN CN) has entered exclusive negotiations with the top shareholders of Neoen (NEOEN FP) to acquire a 53.32% stake at €39.85/share, 26.9% premium, which will trigger a mandatory offer.
- The offer represents 15.1x EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA vs. the median of peers at 9.3x. My fair-value estimate (DCF-based) is €33.76/share, therefore the offer is generous, in my view.
- Expect the shares to close the spread tomorrow and trade around 3% gross spread and the convertibles to price higher (2% 06/25 at around €51.85, 2.875% 09/27 around 111.72%).
TLNE: Electrifying Tender, PT to $145
- TLNE is putting its growing cash balance to use by announcing a Dutch tender buyback of up to $600 million of its stock.
- The Dutch tender establishes our price target of $120 is too low as we look ahead to 2025.
- Our price target of $120 was based on TLNE generating approximately $700 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2024. We are now using our 2025 estimate for our price target
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