Daily Brief United States: Workday Inc Class A, Apollo Global Management , Intel Corp, Bitcoin, JAKKS Pacific , ServiceTitan, MediciNova , Nurexone Biologic, Pan American Silver and more

• Constituent changes to the S&P 500 INDEX and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$15.9bn across the Select Sector indices and the S&P500 Equal Weight Index.
• The Select Sector index trackers and S&P 500 Equal Weight trackers will need to buy Apollo Global Management and Workday, adding to the buying from S&P 500 INDEX trackers.
• The flows will change over the next week as stock prices move around and final capping is done after the close on 13 December.

• There are 2 changes for the S&P 500 INDEX, 2 changes for the S&P Midcap400 Index and 6 changes for the S&P SmallCap600 Index at the December rebalance.
• Apollo Global and Workday will have large flows from S&P 500 INDEX trackers while AppLovin misses out. The SPX adds will have large inflows from the Select Sector index trackers too.
• The outright adds are up a lot in the after-hours and there could be further upside over the next couple of weeks as positioning ramps up.

• Pat Gelsinger took to X to invite us to join him in 24 hours of “praying and fasting” for Intel’s 100k employees to help them navigate “this difficult period”
• This is an unprecedented move never before seen in the semiconductor world, albeit we suspect that IBM may have dabbled in something similar to resurrect their 2nm process prowess
• This coming Thursday is the proposed date. Don’t expect miracles, this could take until the following Monday for the full impact to manifest itself in terms of share price appreciation

• On Friday post-close, S&PDJI announced the changes to the S&P500, S&P MidCap400, and S&P SmallCap600 Indices. The S&P500 names will get added to/deleted from the S&P500 Equal-Weight Index too.
• Apollo Global Management (APO US) and Workday Inc Class A (WDAY US) are IN to the S&P500. Qorvo Inc (QRVO US) and Amentum Holdings (AMTM US) are demoted to SmallCap600.
• There is a theoretical quantity to trade, and an expected quantity to trade

• Just two days ago, Bitcoin surged past the $100,000 milestone for the first time, reaching a peak of $104,000.
• This achievement is highly significant, not only because it represents a critical psychological threshold but also due to the immense media attention such milestones attract.
• Historically, this kind of coverage has often spurred increased interest from retail investors, who may be prompted to purchase Bitcoin as a result.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $40 price target and projections for JAKKS Pacific after meeting with company management.
• We believe, with easy 1H2025 comparisons, the initial strength of the Moana 2 premiere, a continued focus on key emerging growth drivers (international, ABG collaboration) and basic blocking and tackling, JAKKS is well positioned to continue to drive upside.
• Further, with the company debt free and registering material free cash flow, there remains opportunities to return capital to investors.

• ServiceTitan, a founder-led market leader for trades businesses in the United States and Canada, is expected to IPO this week.
• The company’s amended S-1 puts the initial price range per share at $52.00 to $57.00, implying a market cap of roughly $5B at the midpoint.  
• I have a positive view of upcoming ServiceTitan IPO and expect an attractive first trading-day return. The stock will begin trading on the Nasdaq on Thursday.  

• On December 5, 2024, MediciNova, Inc. (MNOV) announced a study update and interim analysis from the Phase 2b/3 COMBAT-ALS trial were scheduled to be presented at the 35th International Symposium on ALS/MND.
• As of Nov.
• 15, 2024, 217 participants had been enrolled and 183 participants were assigned to either MN-166 or placebo.

• NurExone (OTC-NRXBF) is a preclinical stage biotech company that is developing a breakthrough treatment for spinal cord injuries that has the potential to dramatically improve lives.
• The technology involved also has the potential to more efficiently get other treatments to the needed area.
• The company is also expanding its potential treatments with ExoPTEN and announced preclinical results that showed promise in repairing optic nerve damage.

After a couple of transitional years, Pan American Silver (PAAS) is in a much better position to deliver more consistent operational and cost performance as the Yamana assets are integrated, La Colorada ventilation issues are resolved and the asset portfolio is largely streamlined. We are upgrading our estimates on higher commodity price assumptions and raising our valuation to US$26.0/share. The stock has been derated on improving earnings momentum and is now trading at below average historical multiples. The recent M&A provides additional valuation support.