In today’s briefing:
- USDCNH: What Month End Close Will Confirm a Sustainable Multi-Month Uptrend with a 7.10/7.20 Target?
- Dollar’O’Meter – Continued USD Weakening Ahead Based on Our Probability Weighted Models
- Sporting Crypto – 20th Feb 2023: The Metaverse Might not Suck
- BLUR’s Big Debut
- Alight: A Highly Durable Business With Long-Term Potential
- BorgWarner Inc.: Major Drivers
- Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.: New Brand Addition & Other Drivers
- Kellogg Company: Major Drivers
- DexCom Inc.: G7 Upside & Other Drivers
- Motorola Solutions Inc.: The ThinkPhone Launch & Other Drivers
USDCNH: What Month End Close Will Confirm a Sustainable Multi-Month Uptrend with a 7.10/7.20 Target?
- At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
- USDCNH has delivered a most positive response to key Fibonacci support at 6.7143. February has the potential to confirm a renewed and sustainable multi-month uptrend.
- A February month end close above 6.9213 will provide such confirmation and target 7.10/7.20 on a multi-month basis.
Dollar’O’Meter – Continued USD Weakening Ahead Based on Our Probability Weighted Models
- Our Dollar’O’Meter hints of further USD weakness on the cards in coming months
- Relative liquidity, relative inflation and relative forward interest rates suggest a weaker USD
- The outlook for the USD is a bit more muddy in H2-2023, but we remain negative for now
Sporting Crypto – 20th Feb 2023: The Metaverse Might not Suck
- This weekend at the NBA All-Star weekend, we saw the NBA commissioner Adam Silver unveil an in-game streaming experience which had the internet in awe.
- Many have decided to brand the ‘Metaverse’ a sham, a dystopian digital experience or something that just plain won’t work.
- When Mark Zuckerberg changed Facebook’s name to ‘Meta’ to indicate the direction of travel he thinks the world is heading in — we should probably have sat up and said “there might be something there”
BLUR’s Big Debut
- Price Movements: Huobi listed a token representing a claim on FTX’s debt, which briefly surged to as high as $100 before crashing to $13.
- Market Liquidity: Coinbase trade volume is increasingly outpacing Uniswap’s, suggesting traders still prefer CEXs.
- Derivatives: BTC open interest remains flat despite heavy volatility.
Alight: A Highly Durable Business With Long-Term Potential
- Alight (NYSE: ALIT, $4.5b market cap) is a well-established company providing health, wealth, payroll administration, and human capital management cloud advisory services to most of the leading companies in the United States.
- The company exhibits many qualities that make it an attractive long-term investment: this is an extremely sticky business with 97% revenue retention, high levels of recurring revenues, a market-leading position, and a blue-chip customer base.
- Management also has many levers to accelerate growth further and improve profitability.
BorgWarner Inc.: Major Drivers
- Despite the severe production unpredictability and inflationary pressures, BorgWarner performed strongly and delivered an all-around beat in the last quarter.
- BorgWarner declared its intention to cut its absolute Scope 3 emissions by at least 25% by 2031.
- The Scope 3 target was formally submitted to SBTi for certification together with their goal of achieving 85% absolute Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions reductions by 2030.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.: New Brand Addition & Other Drivers
- Hilton Worldwide Holdings delivered an all-around beat in its last result with strong free cash flows.
- It distributed over $1.7 billion to shareholders for the entire year due to strong profits and increased margins.
- We give Hilton Worldwide Holdings a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.
Kellogg Company: Major Drivers
- Kellogg ended the year with an all-around beat and double-digit net sales growth in every region, supported by end-market success.
- The company continued to experience great growth in emerging countries, driven by its portfolio of noodles and other products in Africa.
- They reduced the profit impact of abnormally high input costs that increased during the year using efficiency and well-planned activities for managing sales growth.
DexCom Inc.: G7 Upside & Other Drivers
- DexCom’s performance in the quarter was strong, with total revenue increasing by 20%.
- By the end of 2022, the company had over 1.7 million clients worldwide after adding nearly 450,000 new Dexcom users.
- The management delivered an all-around beat and claims to have increased consumer engagement and growth while expanding the scope and effectiveness of its business.
Motorola Solutions Inc.: The ThinkPhone Launch & Other Drivers
- Motorola’s Q4 results were an all-around beat as the company is seeing a strong demand for its business security products.
- In the quarter, the company increased operating margins by 150 basis points, revenue by 17%, and profits per share by 26%.
- They experienced 14% revenue growth in their Products and Systems Integration business, led by strong growth in both LMR and video security.
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