In today’s briefing:
- Texas Instrument: Small Beat in 3Q24, Uninspiring 4Q Guidance, the Stock Is Very Expensive.
- Digital Asset Primer: Part 2 – Foundations, Companies, and Tokens: Strategic Insights for Investors
- JAKK: 3Q Preview: More than Holiday Movie Winners; Reiterate Buy, $30 PT
- Spectral AI, Inc – MDAI: Management Changes
- SBC: Fast Growing Solutions Provider in Expanding Medical Aesthetics Market, Initiating Coverage
- GES: Snapping the Store: Going Full On for Fall; Reiterate Buy, $29 PT
- IPAR: Prestige of Success
Texas Instrument: Small Beat in 3Q24, Uninspiring 4Q Guidance, the Stock Is Very Expensive.
- TXN reported 3Q24 last night: EPS 7% above Consensus, small beat. However, 4Q guidance shows a delayed / tepid recovery: revenue to decline -6% YoY, EPS to decline -21% YoY.
- Industrial demand is still declining steeply -23% YoY, “hovering at the bottom”. Auto revenue -2% YoY with growth in China but rest of world is declining.
- The stock is trading at 31x 2025 and 25x 2026 Consensus EPS, way above its valuations range.
Digital Asset Primer: Part 2 – Foundations, Companies, and Tokens: Strategic Insights for Investors
- Blockchain technology provides decentralized, transparent, and immutable digital ledgers, revolutionizing how transactions and data are managed without reliance on centralized authorities or intermediaries.
- Tokens enable participation in blockchain ecosystems by providing access to services, governance rights, or value transfers, playing a key role in incentivizing user engagement and network growth.
- Foundations and companies shape the development of blockchain projects, issuing tokens to fund innovation, promote decentralization, and drive community-driven governance, supporting the evolution of Web3 technologies.
JAKK: 3Q Preview: More than Holiday Movie Winners; Reiterate Buy, $30 PT
- We are reiterating our Buy rating, $30 price target and projections for JAKKS Pacific with the company announcing 3Q24 (September) results after the close on Wednesday.
- We remain confident in our inline projections for the quarter, and believe the company, with a strong, somewhat lower-risk Holiday movie lineup in 2024, the beginning of the ramp of the Authentic Brands and The Simpsons license expansions, and the potential upside for Dog Man and the company’s own Wild Manes line launch, is well positioned to drive top and bottom line upside into 2025.
- As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $30 price target for JAKK.
Spectral AI, Inc – MDAI: Management Changes
- Spectral AI is developing an AI-guided predictive medical device that employs multispectral imaging (MSI) to estimate a wound’s capacity to heal.
- The company is pursuing indications in burn and diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) with the former receiving support from BARDA & other government agencies.
- Spectral is distinguished by its combination of MSI and AI to improve diagnoses.
SBC: Fast Growing Solutions Provider in Expanding Medical Aesthetics Market, Initiating Coverage
- SBC continues to expand its footprint organically and through strategic M&A to grow its franchisee network and revenue base.
- SBC can leverage its strong balance sheet and suite of solutions to lower the all-in costs for clinics to launch and / or extend their businesses and to support its overall expansion strategy.
- The rising acceptance of and popularity of aesthetic medicine in Japan and globally creates a tailwind for its growth, in our view.
GES: Snapping the Store: Going Full On for Fall; Reiterate Buy, $29 PT
- We are reiterating our Buy rating, $29 price target and projections for Guess?
- after visiting stores in Long Island and the Metro New York City area.
- We believe, with the Fall fashion season in full bloom, the company has continued to raise the stakes for elevation, escalating key categories such as sweaters, outerwear and activewear, while raising the stakes for denim and focusing even more attention on accessories as a key play for Holiday events/parties.
IPAR: Prestige of Success
- IPAR continues to demonstrate its ability to outperform with its brand portfolio of prestige fragrances. IPAR provided preliminary third quarter 2024 sales estimate of approximately $425 million.
- We believe the growth IPAR is reporting for the third quarter was the result of greater demand than retailers stocking more for the holidays.
- IPAR highlighted the growth in its top two brands, Jimmy Choo and Montblanc, as primary reasons for the sales in the quarter. Lacoste and Cavalli were an additional boost.
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