In today’s briefing:
- SPX Bounce to Short
- PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL US): TSS Target Achieved in 12 Days (+12.5%)
- XPER: CES and a New Catalyst
- Tractor Supply Company: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
- Huobi Market Share Plummets in 2022
- Chevron: The Narrative Is Your Worst Enemy
- Sporting Crypto – Top 3 Web3 Trends for the Sports Industry in 2023
- Lennar Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
- The Commodity Report #85
- IRDM: Snapping to a New Price Target
SPX Bounce to Short
- SPX bounce call from 3,800 to 3,950 is unfolding with risk of an early failure. Flat pattern wants to press lower post bounce.
- Sell points noted at 3,950 with scope to 3,980. We are using NDX and RTY as our short vehicles.
- DXY still needs some time to base at 103/102 but a low would fit with a risk top here.
PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL US): TSS Target Achieved in 12 Days (+12.5%)
- On 16 December we determined that the new interim downtrend low at 69.77 would likely fail and produce an 8% to 13% correction to 75.00/78.50 in 1-2 weeks.
- PYPL US subsequently bottomed at 66.39, before reversing to 78.48 (+12.5% from 69.77), 12 days after our recommendation.
- Please refer to our publication on 19 October 2022 … “Introducing Our Tactical Trend Reversal Methodology: TSS (Trend Sustainability Score)” for a description of our proprietary TSS methodology.
XPER: CES and a New Catalyst
- XPER used the CES event this year to make several news announcements, but the biggest news for XPER was the one released by Roku Inc. (ROKU).
- The ROKU announcement causes TiVo being the only independent TV operating system. We believe this could result in XPER establishing greater market share for its TVOS than originally expected
- During CES Verstel introduced a series of TVs under multiple brands that would use TiVo TVOS. Additionally, XPER revealed more automakers that are releasing car models with AutoSense and AutoStage
Tractor Supply Company: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
- This is our first report on Tractor Supply Company, a major rural lifestyle retailer in the U.S. catering to recreational farmers and ranchers.
- It delivered a mixed quarter, missing out on the revenue expectations of analysts but managing an earnings beat.
- We initiate coverage on the stock of Tractor Supply Company with a ‘Hold’ rating.
Huobi Market Share Plummets in 2022
- Price Movements: Most Layer 1 tokens have struggled versus ETH since December, but SOL and ATOM have recently outperformed.
- Market Liquidity: Curve’s 3pool – made up of USDT, USDC, and DAI – has seen its total value locked fall from $5.5bn to just $600mn over the past year.
- Derivatives: Both SOL and LDO experienced a short squeeze as each token unexpectedly rallied.
Chevron: The Narrative Is Your Worst Enemy
- Chevron has nearly doubled since I first laid out my investment thesis, all the while negative sentiment remained high.
- Short-term volatility is to be expected, however, remaining focused on the long-term competitiveness of the business is more important, according to the company’s chief executive.
- Flashback to early 2021: Share prices of high-growth and technology companies are making new highs.
Sporting Crypto – Top 3 Web3 Trends for the Sports Industry in 2023
- What better way to start the year than to make a fool of myself by predicting some trends for 2023?
- Forecasting or predicting anything is extremely difficult and the further out you go, the less accurate you can be.
- That’s even the case with weather with ~ 90% accuracy on 5-day forecasts and 50% on 10-day forecasts.
Lennar Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
- Lennar Corporation is one of the largest homebuilders and home finance service providers in the U.S.
- The company has had a decent financial performance off-late and has strengthened its positioning for changing market conditions.
- Both new and existing home market sales and sales prices are significantly down, and given commercial underwriting and lending restrictions, new rental properties are also being restricted.
The Commodity Report #85
- In the world of natural resources, iron ore is probably the most China-centric commodity — even more than crude oil, copper or soybeans.
- Beijing accounts for more than 70% of the world’s imports of the mineral.
- Therefore it’s not hard to see that there is a direct correlation between Iron ore prices and the health of the Chinese economy.
IRDM: Snapping to a New Price Target
- The technology agreement IRDM had first announced in July 2022 became clear with the official naming during CES.
- QCOM has entered into a service provider agreement with IRDM that would result in new Snapdragon with satellite connectivity
- The news is more significant than a smartphone maker since QCOM’s mobile processors are used by multiple smartphone makers
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
