In today’s briefing:
- SPX Rally Failure Below 4,200
- Defensive Areas Starting to Lead; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Support at 3.35-3.4%
- KKR & Co. Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Other Drivers
- Perpetua Resources Corp (PPTA) Post-Results FYE22 ACF Equity Research 12042023
- UnitedHealth’s Q1 Earnings: Don’t Get Too Excited
- NTGR: Promotion Stability a Positive
- BlackRock Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
- VeriSign Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
- VeriSign Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Management Focus & Key Drivers
- American Express Company: Initiation of Coverage – B2b Expansion & Other Drivers
SPX Rally Failure Below 4,200
- Compelling intraday reversal that kissed 4,177. Concern over an early fade below 4,200 was justified and formed a dual top. Fade below 4,165 was negative and used to sell.
- Growth concerns overshadowing lower inflation (transitioning) and this is a theme that we expect will expand over the summer along with the next round of bank failures/ripples and systemic risk.
- Cycle: May/June a more negative cycle. Second half of April is when bull energy dissipates and starts the turning process.
Defensive Areas Starting to Lead; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Support at 3.35-3.4%
- Since late-January/early-February we’ve recommended shifting to defensives considering our belief that 4165-4200 will cap upside on the $SPX in 2023, while also conceding that a reach to 4300-4325 is possible.
- Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives and believe that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives
- Defensive Sectors including Health Care (XLV), Utilities (XLU), and Staples (XLP) are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX).
KKR & Co. Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Other Drivers
- This is our first report on a global investment behemoth, KKR & Co.
- Inc.
- The company delivered strong set of quarterly results surpassing Wall Street expectations on all fronts.
Perpetua Resources Corp (PPTA) Post-Results FYE22 ACF Equity Research 12042023
- EBIT beat – loss came in lower by 2.43%, Δ $(0.73)m vs. ACF est.;
- EBITDA beat – loss came in lower by 2.43%, vs. ACF est.;
- EPS beat (+ fully diluted) loss 4.22% lower vs. ACF est.
UnitedHealth’s Q1 Earnings: Don’t Get Too Excited
- UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s first-quarter earnings report might settle lower than anticipated as prices on long-term solutions have softened.
- The company has a rich history of beating earnings estimates, and its cash-based earnings exceeded its accrual-based income in 2022.
- UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) is set to release its first-quarter earnings results before trading opens on Friday, the 14th.
NTGR: Promotion Stability a Positive
- NTGR has been going through a product transition cycle in a soft demand environment for more than a year, but recent promotion activity suggests an end could be near
- The scale of promotions seems to have abated in the first quarter of 2023 even though demand has yet to return.
- NTGR had been projecting the first quarter would be the low point of the year with sequential revenue growth in the second quarter.
BlackRock Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
- This is our first report on one of the largest asset managers, BlackRock.
- While the market situation in 2022 was among the most difficult years, BlackRock delivered decent organic growth and ended the year with an all-around beat.
- The company generated $300 billion in total net inflows in 2022, which led the industry, and experienced positive organic base fee growth.
VeriSign Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
- VeriSign is one of the largest domain name registry services and internet infrastructure providers in the world.
- It produced solid financial results throughout 2022 while bolstering its vital Internet infrastructure.
- Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.
VeriSign Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Management Focus & Key Drivers
- This is our first report on the renowned domain name registry services and internet infrastructure provider, VeriSign.
- It produced solid financial results throughout 2022 while bolstering its vital Internet infrastructure.
- This was made achievable by conservative expense management, restricted pricing flexibility, and minimal domain name base expansion.
American Express Company: Initiation of Coverage – B2b Expansion & Other Drivers
- This is our first report on American Express, one of the world’s largest integrated payment companies.
- The company continued the upward trend in Card Member spending, engagement, and retention in the fourth quarter.
- We initiate coverage on the stock of the American Express Company with a ‘Hold’ rating.
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