In today’s briefing:
- S&P 500/400/600 Changes – DELL, PLTR, and ERIE Added, AAL, ETSY, BIO Deleted
- Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow
- Crypto Crisp: September, Please Go Away
- Key Updates on Bicara Therapeutics IPO: ~$800M Valuation at the Midpoint and Strong Balance Sheet
- ARWR: PALISADE Phase 3 Results Published in NEJM
S&P 500/400/600 Changes – DELL, PLTR, and ERIE Added, AAL, ETSY, BIO Deleted
- Last Friday, the S&P Index Committee announced the changes to the S&P500, S&P400, S&P600, and other indices, along with the result of a recent consultation on capping methodology.
- The result is about US$23bn a side of flows for the major indices
- In the S&P500, DELL, PLTR, and ERIE are ADDs. AAL, ETSY, and BIO are DELETEs. But as always, just knowing the names is deceptive. The history matters more.
Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow
- Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.
- Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it’s likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.
- At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.
Crypto Crisp: September, Please Go Away
- Since the release of our Crypto Moves #42 on Friday, the market experienced further declines but has since regained some of its lost ground.
- Our outlook remains unchanged: at best, the market will move sideways throughout September, and at worst, we may see further declines.
- However, starting in October, the market will most likely show signs of life similar to those we saw in the early months of this year.
Key Updates on Bicara Therapeutics IPO: ~$800M Valuation at the Midpoint and Strong Balance Sheet
- Bicara Therapeutics unveiled the terms of its IPO: a clinical-stage biotech company offers ~11.8M shares at the price range of $16.00-$18.00, implying a market cap of ~$800M at the midpoint.
- Existing shareholders do not intend to sell shares in this offering and Bicara Therapeutics shares will list on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “BCAX”.
- The biotech company is focused on patients with HPV-negative head and neck cancer, and I view Bicara’s IPO valuation as attractive, with major catalysts coming up in 2025.
ARWR: PALISADE Phase 3 Results Published in NEJM
- On September 2, 2024, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) announced results from the Phase 3 PALISADE study of plozasiran in patients with familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS).
- The trial met its primary endpoint and all key secondary endpoints, including statistically significant reductions in triglycerides (TGs), apolipoprotein C-III (APOC3), and the incidence of acute pancreatitis.
- The data were presented in a late-breaking oral presentation at the European Society of Cardiolog (ESG) Congress 2024 and simultaneously published in The New England Journal of Medicine.
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