Daily Brief United States: Microsoft Corp, Crude Oil, Copper, Symbotic, Boise Cascade Co, Vera Bradley, Centrus Energy , CoreCivic and more

• Azure Revenue Growth: Microsoft’s Azure revenue soared 21% YoY to $26.7B in Q3 2024, driven by advanced AI capabilities and increased enterprise adoption.
• AI & Personal Computing: AI-driven Copilot+ PCs and hybrid AI solutions are reshaping the market, with AI-capable PC shipments projected to rise from 19% in 2024 to 60% by 2027.
• Gaming + Activision: The $68.7B Activision acquisition boosted gaming revenue by 51% YoY, with Game Pass subscribers exceeding 30M and expanding Microsoft’s position in cloud gaming.

• US oil and gas rig count increased by two to 586 for the week ending 19/Jul, rising for the second time in the last three weeks.  
• US oil rig count fell by 1 to 477, declining for the second straight week. Gas rigs rose by 3 to 103, after falling by one the week prior.
• The EIA has increased its US crude production forecasts in its latest STEO report, raising them by 0.8% YoY for 2024 and 0.4% YoY for 2025. 

• Take aways: China will flood markets with copper supply
• Copper har decoupled from macro fundamentals according to our PCA tool
• It’s a tuck or war between positioning and fundamentals in metals. Crude tumbling despite all time highs in global flight data and crowded congestion

• We are initiating coverage of Symbotic (SYM) with a Sell Rating and $10 target. 
• The latest quarterly report from SYM suggests there could be little in the form of catalysts with the biggest news being related to a business owned by the CEO
• We believe investors are putting too much reliance on SYM generating revenue from Wal-Mart (WMT) even though WMT is also using SYM’s competition for warehouse automation. 

• Boise has transformed under new management since spinning off from OfficeMax in 2013
• Strategic acquisitions and investments have shifted focus towards higher-margin products
• Repurposing lumber/plywood capacity for engineered products and closer integration between segments have positioned Boise for strong cash flow returns

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• We are reiterating our Buy rating, $10 price target and projections for Vera Bradley after visiting Long Island and Connecticut Vera Bradley locations.
• With the launch of the New Day on July 11th, Vera Bradley entered a new era for their main line stores, with new fabrics, new looks, lighter and brighter fixtures, a new logo and a new spokesperson (Zooey Deschanel).
• When the shock of the new has passed, the look and offerings are impressive and, we believe, when fully launched, will satisfy both the traditional Vera Bradley shopper looking for exciting patterns and features and drive new, younger customers that will be attracted to the compelling fashion, combinations, colors and versatility of the offerings.

• Short Centrus and long Silex Systems and Cameco to hedge against commodity price and uranium enrichment hype risk
• Centrus underperforming and expected to trade lower due to potential ban on Russian imports
• Long positions in Cameco and Silex Systems could offset risks and benefit from increased demand for Western enrichers

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• We remain optimistic about CXW’s new business activities, operating improvements and cost containment efforts.
• Over time, we expect occupancies at CXW facilities to continue to increase, the pending ICE termination of services at CXW’s South Texas Family Residential Center notwithstanding, as ICE & multiple government entities seek capacity.
• CXW also continues to strengthen its balance sheet, with a 2Q24 debt offering concurrent with a tender offer for 2026 8.25% notes.

• CTA Positioning Update The latest CTA picture by UBS shows that managed money is currently maxed long coffee and oil and max short corn, soybeans cotton and lean hogs.
• The contrarian ideas would speculate on the exact opposite of this positioning. On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.
• On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning.